The global financial landscape is experiencing heightened volatility due to escalating trade tensions, unexpected macroeconomic data, and shifting investor sentiment. As markets react to new tariffs, stronger-than-expected employment figures, and growing recession fears, digital assets are under increasing pressure. This technical analysis dives into the short-term outlook for major cryptocurrencies—BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and DOGE—highlighting key support and resistance levels, momentum indicators, and potential reversal scenarios.
Understanding these dynamics is essential for traders navigating uncertain markets. With risk appetite declining and fear rising, technical signals become even more critical in identifying strategic entry and exit points.
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Bitcoin (BTC/USDT): Testing Critical Support Amid Macro Pressures
Bitcoin briefly pushed above the $85,000 level during the day but reversed sharply as selling pressure intensified. The latest U.S. non-farm payrolls data came in at 228K—well above expectations—while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, exceeding forecasts. This contradictory signal has fueled uncertainty: strong job growth may delay rate cuts, but rising unemployment hints at underlying economic weakness.
Meanwhile, China’s announcement of a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports has escalated trade tensions, with Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba calling the situation a “national crisis.” These developments have dampened global risk appetite, contributing to BTC’s retreat.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $82,700, within a critical reference range. The Wave Trend oscillator lost its short-term buy signal and flipped back to a sell signal, reflecting weakening momentum. Most technical indicators continue to show a bearish bias, though liquidation data suggests thin positions—indicating that investors remain cautious rather than aggressively positioned.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Supports: $82,400 – $81,500 – $80,000
- Resistances: $83,500 – $86,600 – $89,000
A break below $81,500** could open the door to deeper selling, with **$78,000 emerging as the next major downside target. Conversely, a sustained close above $83,500 would signal renewed buying interest and potentially pave the way for a short-term recovery.
Market participants should monitor macro developments closely, as ongoing trade wars and economic data will continue to influence BTC’s trajectory in the near term.
Ethereum (ETH/USDT): Bearish Momentum Builds After Rejection
Ethereum initially rose to $1,822**, aligning with earlier expectations. However, the rally was short-lived. China’s announcement of additional tariffs on U.S. goods triggered a broad sell-off across risk assets, dragging ETH down to a key support level at **$1,755.
Despite brief stabilization from reaction buying at this level, the release of strong NFP data later in the day reignited downward pressure. The price resumed its decline, confirming ongoing weakness in market structure.
Technically, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has turned negative again, signaling net outflows from the market. The Ichimoku cloud further reinforces bearish sentiment: the Tenkan-sen has dropped below the Kijun-sen, and the Kumo cloud continues to slope downward. Additionally, the RSI briefly moved above its moving average but reversed back below during the session—indicating fading bullish momentum.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Supports: $1,755 – $1,540 – $1,220
- Resistances: $1,822 – $1,872 – $1,964
While the $1,755** level remains a crucial defense point, a break below could accelerate losses. On the upside, reclaiming **$1,822 would be necessary to suggest a potential reversal. Until then, the path of least resistance remains downward.
Ripple (XRP/USDT): Strong Support Holds Despite Macro Shock
XRP showed relative resilience despite broad market weakness. Earlier in the day, it reached the Kijun line, a key resistance level on the Ichimoku indicator. However, China’s 34% tariff announcement triggered a sharp risk-off move, pushing XRP down to its strong support zone at $2.02.
Notably, buying interest re-emerged at this level, helping stabilize prices. More importantly, key technical indicators remain constructive:
- The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is still in positive territory and trending upward—suggesting sustained liquidity inflows.
- The RSI found support at its baseline moving average and continues to rise with momentum.
These signals indicate that bullish interest remains intact despite the pullback.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Supports: $2.0201 – $1.8932 – $1.6309
- Resistances: $2.2154 – $2.3330 – $2.4940
The fact that XRP has tested the $2.02** level three times and held each time confirms its strength as a support zone. A breakout above the Kijun line could reignite upward momentum toward **$2.21+. However, failure to hold $2.02 could lead to a deeper correction.
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Solana (SOL/USDT): Mixed Signals Amid ETF Hopes
Grayscale’s recent filing for a Solana ETF has sparked interest, but price action remains bearish in the short term. SOL continues its downtrend from March 25 and remains below key moving averages.
On the 4-hour chart:
- The 50 EMA (blue) is below the 200 EMA (black)—a bearish alignment.
- Price continues to trade beneath both moving averages.
- The CMF indicator is in negative territory and broke down from an uptrend that began on March 29.
However, there are early signs of potential reversal:
- The RSI (14) is in negative territory but shows a bullish divergence, suggesting weakening selling pressure.
- A double bottom formation has emerged—often a precursor to a reversal if confirmed.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Supports: $110.59 – $100.34 – $92.82
- Resistances: $120.24 – $127.21 – $133.74
A break above $127.21** could confirm bullish momentum and open room for further gains. Conversely, failure to hold **$110.59 may extend losses toward $100.
Dogecoin (DOGE/USDT): Sideways Action Ahead of Breakout
Dogecoin has traded sideways since our last update, hovering below the downtrend line from March 26. It briefly broke below $0.16203, a strong support level, but quickly recovered and held above it—a positive sign.
Technical indicators present mixed signals:
- The CMF is in positive territory but could turn negative if inflows slow.
- The RSI (14) is in negative territory but shows an upward divergence—suggesting potential buying momentum may be building.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Supports: $0.16203 – $0.14952 – $0.14237
- Resistances: $0.16686 – $0.17766 – $0.18954
The next major resistance at $0.17766** could be tested if positive news—such as regulatory clarity or ecosystem developments—boosts sentiment. A drop toward **$0.14952 would signal renewed bearish control.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is causing the current market downturn?
A: Escalating trade tensions—especially China’s 34% tariff on U.S. imports—and mixed U.S. economic data (strong NFP but rising unemployment) have increased uncertainty and reduced risk appetite globally.
Q: Is Bitcoin likely to fall below $80,000?
A: A break below $81,500 could increase selling pressure and make a move toward $78,000 more likely. For now, $82,400–$81,500 is a critical support zone.
Q: Can Ethereum recover if it holds $1,755?
A: Yes. Holding $1,755 is crucial. If buyers defend this level and momentum improves, a retest of $1,822 is possible.
Q: Why is XRP holding up better than other cryptos?
A: Strong technical indicators like positive CMF and RSI support suggest sustained buying interest at key support levels like $2.02.
Q: What does Grayscale’s Solana ETF filing mean for SOL?
A: While not guaranteed approval, such filings typically boost long-term sentiment and institutional interest in the asset.
Q: How reliable are RSI divergences in predicting reversals?
A: Bullish divergences—like those seen in SOL and DOGE—are useful early warning signs of potential trend changes, especially when confirmed by price action.
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