Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of a potential trend reversal, according to a recent analysis by crypto contributor burakkemeci via CryptoQuant’s Quicktake. After weeks of downward price action, BTC has surged past the critical $100,000 mark—its first time reclaiming this psychological level since early February. This momentum shift has sparked renewed optimism among market watchers, with on-chain indicators suggesting the possibility of a bullish breakout on the horizon.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $103,444, marking a 4% gain in the past 24 hours and a robust 20% rebound from its April 6 low of $74,508. While still about 5.2% below its all-time high of $108,786 set on January 20, the recovery momentum appears to be building.
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator Flashes Cautionary Hope
Central to the current analysis is the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator, an on-chain tool designed to detect shifts between bull and bear markets by analyzing investor behavior and price momentum. The indicator combines two key moving averages: the 30-day and 365-day MAs, offering a clear visual of long-term versus short-term market sentiment.
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Notably, the 30-day moving average has begun to turn upward—a subtle but potentially significant development. Historically, when this short-term MA crosses above the 365-day MA, Bitcoin has entered periods of parabolic growth. While that crossover hasn’t occurred yet, the mere reversal in direction is being interpreted as an early positive signal.
Burakkemeci noted:
"With Bitcoin surging back above $100K, the indicator has started flashing bullish signals again—for the first time in weeks. Although the signal is still weak (coefficient: 0.029), the mere appearance of a positive shift is encouraging."
This suggests that while the market isn’t yet in full bull mode, the foundation for one may be forming.
Macro Trends Align With Bitcoin’s Potential Upside
Beyond technical indicators, macroeconomic factors are also painting a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, recently highlighted a compelling correlation between global M2 money supply and BTC’s price performance.
Bittel’s analysis overlays Bitcoin’s price chart with global liquidity data, adjusted for a 12-week lag. The results show a sharp uptick in global M2 since early 2025—indicating increased monetary supply across major economies. Given Bitcoin’s historical tendency to respond positively to liquidity expansions, this surge in money supply could fuel further price appreciation in the coming months.
Such macro-level tailwinds reinforce the argument that Bitcoin remains a viable hedge against inflation and currency devaluation—especially in an environment where central banks are loosening monetary policy.
Warning Signs: Profit-Taking and Weak Demand Momentum
Despite growing optimism, not all indicators point to smooth sailing. Analysts warn that the current rally is accompanied by aggressive profit-taking, which could signal the formation of a local top. When large numbers of investors cash out gains following a price surge, it often precedes consolidation or pullback phases.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s Demand Momentum—a metric that gauges buying pressure—has yet to exit negative territory. Prolonged negative demand momentum typically occurs during late-stage distribution cycles or macro consolidations, where accumulation hasn’t yet outweighed selling pressure.
This duality underscores a market at a crossroads: bullish structural signals are emerging, but short-term exhaustion could trigger volatility before any sustained breakout materializes.
Stochastic RSI Signals Renewed Bullish Pressure
Adding to the mix, Bitcoin’s Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now reflecting signs of brewing bullish momentum. Unlike traditional RSI, the stochastic version compares current price levels to a range over time, helping identify overbought or oversold conditions with greater sensitivity.
The current reading suggests that BTC is emerging from oversold territory and gaining upward traction—a development that often precedes strong price movements if supported by volume and on-chain fundamentals.
With BTC holding above $100,000 and key indicators slowly aligning, traders are watching closely for confirmation of a new uptrend.
Core Keywords:
- Bitcoin market cycle
- Bullish breakout
- CryptoQuant indicator
- Bitcoin price prediction
- On-chain analysis
- BTC demand momentum
- Stochastic RSI
- Global M2 money supply
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator?
A: It’s an on-chain analytical tool that compares Bitcoin’s 30-day and 365-day moving averages to assess whether the market is in a bull or bear phase. A rising 30-day MA relative to the long-term MA often precedes bullish breakouts.
Q: Why is the $100,000 level important for Bitcoin?
A: The $100K mark is a major psychological and technical resistance level. Reclaiming it signals renewed investor confidence and can attract additional buying pressure from institutions and retail traders alike.
Q: What does aggressive profit-taking mean for Bitcoin’s price?
A: It indicates that many holders are selling after recent gains, which can reduce upward momentum. While not inherently bearish, sustained profit-taking may lead to short-term pullbacks or consolidation.
Q: How does global M2 money supply affect Bitcoin?
A: Increased money supply typically leads to inflationary pressures, driving investors toward scarce assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. Historically, BTC has performed well during periods of monetary expansion.
Q: Is a parabolic move in Bitcoin likely soon?
A: A parabolic surge becomes more probable if the 30-day MA crosses above the 365-day MA and demand momentum turns positive. However, confirmation from volume and on-chain activity is essential before such a move can be confirmed.
Q: What should investors watch next?
A: Key metrics include the Bull-Bear MA crossover, sustained trading above $105,000, improvement in demand momentum, and low exchange reserves—signals that accumulation is outpacing selling.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin’s journey back toward its all-time high is unfolding amid a mix of cautious optimism and underlying strength. While short-term risks like profit-taking and weak demand persist, long-term indicators—from on-chain flows to macro liquidity trends—are beginning to align in favor of a bullish breakout.
The CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator remains one of the most reliable tools for identifying structural shifts in Bitcoin’s market cycle. Its recent turn toward positivity—though still fragile—adds weight to the argument that we may be nearing a pivotal moment in BTC’s price trajectory.
For investors and traders alike, staying informed through real-time data and multi-layered analysis will be key to navigating what could be one of the most consequential phases in Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle.