The cryptocurrency market is navigating uncertain waters after Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $112,000. While the milestone sparked optimism, recent price consolidation and signs of weakening momentum have prompted analysts to reassess the near-term outlook. Chain analysis suggests that despite potential for further upside, Bitcoin may be entering a phase of reduced bullish strength. Key support zones are now under scrutiny as traders brace for possible corrections.
Signs of Weakening Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin’s rally to $112,000 was followed by a noticeable pullback, accompanied by multiple waves of profit-taking. This pattern indicates diminishing buying pressure and a shift in market dynamics. According to analyst Murphy, the second wave of realized profit on May 29 was slightly lower than the first on May 23—approximately $2.1 billion—but had a more pronounced downward impact on price. This suggests weakening demand and reduced market resilience in absorbing sell-side pressure.
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On-chain data reveals a sustained decline in supply held by short-term holders (STH), represented by the red line in UTXO distribution models. This trend contrasts with the rising price action, creating a divergence similar to patterns observed in late November of the previous year. Such misalignment often precedes market corrections, as it reflects eroding confidence among newer investors.
This recent uptick appears driven more by low liquidity and holder reluctance to sell—common in mature bull phases—rather than strong new demand. As a result, upward momentum faces structural constraints, limiting the potential for sustained breakout moves without fresh capital inflows.
Three Critical Support Zones to Watch
As bullish momentum wanes, attention has turned to key support levels that could determine Bitcoin’s next major move. Analyst Murphy identifies three primary zones based on UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which maps where coins were last moved on-chain—offering insight into holder cost bases and psychological price anchors.
1. $100,000 – $105,000: Psychological and Structural Resistance Flip
This range represents a major cluster of accumulated supply. Many investors view $100,000 as both a technical and psychological threshold. Having previously acted as resistance, it now serves as a critical support level. A strong defense here could signal continued bullish control and set the stage for another attempt at new highs.
2. $93,000 – $98,000: Stronghold of New Long-Term Buyers
This zone is primarily occupied by newer buyers who entered during recent rallies. Unlike short-term traders, these participants tend to hold with longer time horizons and lower sensitivity to volatility. Their collective cost basis forms a resilient floor, potentially triggering aggressive buying if tested.
3. $81,000 – $87,000: Last Line of Defense
While less densely populated with recent transactions, this lower range could act as a final cushion before deeper correction territory. However, due to thinner on-chain activity compared to higher zones, its reliability as support is less certain.
Among these levels, $96,000 stands out as a pivotal benchmark—it marks the average realized price for short-term holders (STH RPC). Analysts refer to this as the "bull-bear line": a break below could confirm the end of the current uptrend and trigger broader risk-off behavior across the market.
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PlanB: Bull Market Still Alive Despite Slowing Momentum
Bitcoin analyst PlanB, known for developing the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, recently shared a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin market cycles from 2010 to 2025. The visualization underscores that Bitcoin remains within a long-term bull phase, even as momentum shows signs of tapering.
“Bitcoin May close: $104,646 … 🔴 continues!” — PlanB (@100trillionUSD)
The chart features consecutive red dots indicating ongoing accumulation and upward trajectory, though the slope has begun to flatten—a typical feature in the later stages of bull markets. Community members have questioned when yellow distribution dots might appear, signaling active profit-taking by large holders. PlanB responded that no such on-chain distribution signals have emerged yet, suggesting the bull run may still have legs.
This implies that while short-term exhaustion is evident, the broader macro structure remains intact. The absence of widespread coin movement from long-term wallets supports the view that smart money hasn’t begun exiting en masse.
Navigating Uncertainty: What Investors Should Watch
In periods of momentum decay, price action alone isn’t enough. Traders should monitor key indicators to distinguish between a healthy consolidation and the start of a reversal:
- Realized Profit Volume: Rising profits during price peaks confirm strength; declining profit realization amid flat or falling prices signals weakening conviction.
- STH Supply Trends: Continued decline suggests ongoing selling pressure from recent buyers—bearish if sustained.
- Volume and Open Interest: Increasing volume on up days versus down days helps confirm trend validity.
- On-Chain Distribution: Watch for large movements from dormant wallets or exchanges as early warning signs.
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A retest of the $112,000 high will be telling: if achieved with strong profit realization and fresh inflows, it could validate further upside. Conversely, a failed breakout with shrinking momentum would heighten reversal risks.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
A: Yes, according to long-term cycle analysis by experts like PlanB. Despite short-term weakening momentum, structural indicators and lack of distribution signals suggest the bull phase continues.
Q: What is the most important Bitcoin support level right now?
A: $96,000—the realized price for short-term holders—is widely seen as the bull-bear line. A sustained break below could signal trend reversal.
Q: Why is profit-taking significant after new highs?
A: Profit-taking reveals market sentiment. If large gains are realized alongside price strength, it shows confidence. But if prices stall while profits rise, it may indicate exhaustion.
Q: How reliable are on-chain support zones?
A: Highly informative but not absolute. Zones like $93K–$98K reflect actual holder cost bases, making them strong behavioral anchors—but extreme events can override them.
Q: Can Bitcoin go higher after slowing momentum?
A: Historically, yes. Past cycles show multiple momentum resets before final peaks. A pause doesn’t mean reversal—especially without distribution signals.
Q: What should traders do in this environment?
A: Focus on risk management. Use key support levels for position sizing, monitor on-chain flows, and avoid overcommitting during consolidation phases.
Core Keywords
Bitcoin price analysis, Bitcoin support levels, on-chain analysis, Bitcoin momentum, bull-bear line, realized profit, short-term holder supply, cryptocurrency market cycle
With momentum slowing but structural supports intact, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads. Whether this marks a mid-cycle breather or the beginning of a top formation depends on how price interacts with critical zones in the weeks ahead.