In recent months, Bitcoin’s market dynamics have undergone a quiet but powerful transformation. After a prolonged period of selling pressure following the March 2025 all-time high (ATH), investor behavior is increasingly shifting back to accumulation and long-term holding—commonly known as "HODLing." Chain data reveals a growing conviction among Bitcoin holders, particularly long-term investors, signaling resilience despite market volatility.
This article explores key on-chain indicators that highlight this behavioral shift, including the Accumulation Trend Score (ATS), Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply trends, and adjusted spot market metrics. We’ll also examine how current market conditions compare to previous cycles and what they suggest about future price momentum.
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The Shift Back to Accumulation
Following a sharp pullback last week, market sentiment remains cautious. Yet beneath the surface, a notable trend is emerging: Bitcoin investors are once again choosing to hold rather than sell.
Since March 2025—when Bitcoin reached its peak price—there was a sustained period of supply distribution across wallet sizes. Both retail and institutional investors took profits, contributing to downward price pressure. However, over the past several weeks, signs of reversal have begun to appear, especially among large-capacity wallets often associated with ETFs and deep-pocketed institutions.
These major players appear to be re-entering accumulation mode.
One powerful metric capturing this shift is the Accumulation Trend Score (ATS), which measures weighted balance changes across the network. A score of 1.0 indicates maximum accumulation activity over a given period. Recently, ATS hit exactly 1.0—its highest possible value—confirming strong net buying behavior over the last 30 days.
This isn’t just short-term speculation. The trend is being reinforced by long-term holders (LTHs), who had previously reduced their positions near the ATH. In the past three months alone, more than 374,000 BTC have moved into long-term holding status—defined as coins not moved for at least 155 days.
Such a large-scale return to HODLing suggests that holding sentiment now outweighs spending pressure across the network.
Long-Term Holders Regain Confidence
To better understand LTH behavior, we can analyze the 7-day change in long-term holder supply. This metric tracks whether long-term investors are net buyers or sellers.
Historically, large outflows from LTH wallets precede market tops. In fact, just before the March 2025 ATH, only 1.7% of trading days in Bitcoin’s history recorded stronger selling pressure from this group. That level of distribution was a classic sign of profit-taking at a macro top.
But now, the trend has reversed. The indicator has turned positive again, showing that long-term holders are once more accumulating and resisting the urge to sell—even amid price consolidation below previous highs.
This growing reluctance to part with Bitcoin at lower valuations reflects increased confidence in its long-term trajectory.
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Market Resilience Above Cost Basis
Another encouraging sign lies in the relationship between current prices and the active investor cost basis—essentially the average price at which recently active coins were last moved.
Despite aggressive distribution from April through July 2025, Bitcoin’s spot price has remained above this cost basis. This means that even after significant selling, the market continues to find support above the break-even point for most active traders.
This threshold acts as a psychological and technical benchmark:
- When price trades above it, it signals bullish momentum.
- When it trades below, bearish sentiment tends to dominate.
The fact that Bitcoin maintains its position above this level suggests underlying strength and sustained positive expectations among short- to mid-term investors.
Assessing Spot Market Imbalance
To gauge net buying or selling pressure in real time, analysts use the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric. Positive CVD values indicate net buying; negative values reflect net selling.
Since the March 2025 peak, CVD has largely trended downward, reflecting persistent net sell-side pressure in the spot market. Over the past two years, the annual median CVD has ranged between –$22 million and –$50 million, indicating a structural bias toward selling.
However, by adjusting this metric to account for that baseline sell-side skew, we can isolate true shifts in demand.
When we apply a 30-day simple moving average (SMA) to the adjusted CVD and compare it with monthly price changes, an important pattern emerges:
- The recent failure to break above $70,000 coincided with weak adjusted CVD—suggesting insufficient spot demand.
- Conversely, when adjusted CVD turns positive, it confirms a revival in organic buying interest.
This framework implies that while macro sentiment may still be cautious, genuine accumulation is beginning to lay the groundwork for future upward momentum.
Navigating the Current Cycle
Price consolidation over recent months has significantly slowed the pace of long-term holder distribution. As a result, the share of network wealth held by LTHs has stabilized—and is now rising again.
Even though LTHs contributed heavily to sell-side pressure during the ATH rally, their overall holdings remain substantially higher compared to prior cycle peaks. This means:
- They are sitting on considerable unrealized gains.
- They are less likely to panic-sell during pullbacks.
- Their exit strategy appears more strategic than emotional.
This patience underscores a maturing investor base—one that views Bitcoin not as a short-term trade but as a long-term store of value.
Measuring Seller Risk: The LTH Profit-Loss Ratio
A deeper look into investor psychology comes from the Long-Term Holder Realized Profit-Loss Ratio, also known as "seller risk."
This metric compares the total realized profits and losses of LTHs against Bitcoin’s realized market cap. Here's how to interpret it:
- High values: Indicate widespread selling at significant profit or loss—often seen during volatile tops or capitulation events.
- Low values: Suggest most BTC is being sold near cost basis—indicating market balance and lower volatility.
Currently, this ratio remains well below levels seen during previous ATH breaks. This tells us two things:
- Long-term holders have taken relatively few profits so far in this cycle.
- They are likely waiting for higher prices before increasing sell pressure.
In other words: the majority of long-term investors are still on the sidelines, watching and waiting.
Summary: A Market Built on Conviction
Bitcoin’s current phase may lack explosive price action—but it’s rich in structural strength. Key takeaways include:
- Long-term holders are reaccumulating BTC after earlier profit-taking.
- The Accumulation Trend Score hit 1.0, signaling strong net buying.
- LTH supply is growing again, with over 374,000 BTC moving into cold storage.
- Price remains above active investor cost basis, showing resilience.
- Adjusted spot CVD suggests improving demand conditions.
- Seller risk remains low—indicating patience and high conviction.
Compared to past cycles, today’s investor base appears more disciplined and less prone to panic. Even during one of the largest price corrections in recent memory, there was no widespread capitulation.
This resilience points to a healthier, more mature market—one where belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value continues to grow.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does 'HODL' mean in crypto?
A: “HODL” is a slang term derived from “hold,” meaning to keep holding Bitcoin regardless of market volatility. It reflects a long-term investment mindset focused on conviction rather than short-term trading.
Q: How is the Accumulation Trend Score calculated?
A: The ATS evaluates weighted balance changes across different wallet tiers. It assigns higher importance to movements from large and long-dormant wallets. A score of 1.0 indicates maximum accumulation across all tiers.
Q: Why are long-term holders important for market stability?
A: LTHs reduce circulating supply by removing coins from active markets. Their reduced selling pressure helps stabilize prices and supports future rallies by limiting available sell-side liquidity.
Q: What is active investor cost basis?
A: It represents the average price at which recently moved bitcoins were last transacted. If current prices stay above this level, it signals that active traders are generally profitable—and less likely to sell aggressively.
Q: Can on-chain data predict price movements?
A: While not predictive in isolation, on-chain metrics provide valuable context about investor behavior and supply dynamics. Combined with technical and macro analysis, they help assess market health and potential turning points.
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
A: Though price growth has paused since March 2025, structural indicators like rising LTH supply and renewed accumulation suggest underlying bullish momentum remains intact—potentially setting up for another leg higher.
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