As the 2025 US presidential election draws closer, Bitcoin is showing signs of renewed momentum. According to analysts at Standard Chartered, the leading cryptocurrency could climb up to $73,800 in the weeks ahead — a 12% upside from current levels — driven by shifting market dynamics and growing institutional confidence.
This projection, made by Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, hinges on a key indicator: the performance of MicroStrategy (MSTR), a publicly traded company that has amassed over 252,000 bitcoins. MSTR’s recent outperformance relative to Bitcoin itself is being interpreted as a bullish signal for the broader crypto market.
Why MicroStrategy’s Surge Matters
Historically, MicroStrategy's stock price has moved closely in tandem with Bitcoin. However, in recent months, MSTR has begun trading at a premium — outpacing the underlying asset it holds. This divergence suggests that investors are pricing in more than just Bitcoin’s value.
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Kendrick identifies two primary catalysts behind this premium:
1. Regulatory Relief: The SAB 121 Exemption
One major development fueling optimism is the exemption granted to BNY Mellon from SAB 121, a controversial accounting rule that requires financial institutions to record cryptocurrencies as liabilities on their balance sheets. This regulation has long been seen as a barrier to broader institutional adoption.
With BNY Mellon now exempt, it signals a potential shift in regulatory sentiment. If more institutions receive similar exemptions, it could pave the way for banks and asset managers to offer crypto custody and yield-bearing products without adverse balance sheet implications.
This easing of regulatory pressure not only benefits traditional finance players but also boosts confidence in digital assets as a legitimate asset class.
2. MicroStrategy’s Evolution Into a “Bitcoin Bank”
Beyond regulatory shifts, MicroStrategy has announced ambitious plans to transform into a "bitcoin bank", aiming to launch bitcoin-based capital market instruments in the future. These could include structured products, lending services, or even tokenized debt offerings backed by its massive BTC holdings.
If approved for regulatory exemptions, MicroStrategy could begin lending its bitcoin holdings to generate yield — a move that would significantly enhance shareholder value and further justify its elevated stock multiple.
“The link between these two for me is that as the broader digital asset ecosystem becomes more legitimate and accessible, MSTR’s valuation multiple goes up,” said Kendrick.
In other words, MSTR’s premium isn’t just about Bitcoin’s price — it reflects growing confidence in the infrastructure being built around it.
Bitcoin’s Path to $73,800
Based on MSTR’s current valuation premium and historical correlation with Bitcoin, Standard Chartered has modeled a near-term price target of $73,800. This represents a realistic upside scenario in the run-up to the election, assuming continued positive momentum in regulation and institutional participation.
While macroeconomic factors like interest rates and inflation still play a role, Kendrick argues that structural changes in the digital asset space are now taking center stage. The convergence of favorable policy developments and corporate innovation is creating a self-reinforcing cycle of adoption and valuation growth.
Election Impact: Does It Really Matter?
A common question among investors is how the outcome of the US presidential election might affect Bitcoin. Interestingly, Kendrick believes the result may be less impactful than widely assumed — at least in the short term.
Both major candidates — despite differing political ideologies — have expressed varying degrees of support for digital assets. Regulatory clarity, financial innovation, and pro-growth policies remain bipartisan priorities in many corners of Washington.
That said, Kendrick notes that a potential return of Donald Trump could be more bullish for Bitcoin over the long term. Trump has positioned himself as a strong advocate for crypto innovation and has criticized restrictive regulations during his campaign.
Under a Trump administration, Kendrick forecasts Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of 2025, driven by deregulatory policies and increased mainstream integration.
However, even under a Harris-led administration, the trajectory of digital assets appears positive. The focus on technological competitiveness and financial inclusion aligns with broader trends supporting blockchain adoption.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is driving Bitcoin’s potential 12% upside before the election?
The projected rise is primarily fueled by regulatory easing (like the SAB 121 exemption), MicroStrategy’s transformation into a bitcoin-focused financial entity, and increasing institutional confidence in digital assets.
How does MicroStrategy influence Bitcoin’s price?
Though MSTR doesn’t directly control Bitcoin’s price, its stock acts as a sentiment barometer. When MSTR trades at a premium, it signals strong investor belief in Bitcoin’s future utility and value — often preceding upward movements in BTC.
Is Bitcoin safe during election volatility?
Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience during political uncertainty. Its decentralized nature makes it an attractive hedge against potential policy shifts or economic instability, especially when traditional markets react nervously.
Could regulation still hurt Bitcoin?
While risks remain, recent exemptions suggest regulators are adopting a more nuanced approach. Rather than blanket restrictions, there's growing recognition of the need to balance innovation with consumer protection — which ultimately supports sustainable growth.
When might Bitcoin hit $73,800?
Standard Chartered estimates this level could be reached in the weeks leading up to the November 2025 election, assuming current trends continue without major macroeconomic disruptions.
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Core Keywords Integration
Throughout this analysis, several core keywords naturally emerge as central to understanding Bitcoin’s current trajectory:
- Bitcoin price
- MicroStrategy (MSTR)
- SAB 121
- Bitcoin bank
- US presidential election
- institutional adoption
- regulatory exemption
- digital asset ecosystem
These terms reflect both market mechanics and investor sentiment shaping today’s crypto landscape.
Looking Ahead: Beyond the Election
Regardless of who wins in November 2025, one trend seems undeniable: Bitcoin is becoming increasingly embedded in the global financial system. From Wall Street firms exploring custody solutions to corporations building yield-generating models around BTC holdings, the ecosystem is maturing rapidly.
The days when Bitcoin was viewed solely as a speculative asset are fading. It's now being integrated into balance sheets, investment strategies, and even long-term national economic discussions.
As regulatory frameworks evolve and institutional participation deepens, price milestones like $73,800 and beyond become not just possible — but probable.
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Final Thoughts
Standard Chartered’s forecast underscores a pivotal moment for Bitcoin. With a confluence of regulatory progress, corporate innovation, and macro-level tailwinds converging ahead of the election, the path to new all-time highs looks increasingly clear.
While short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the structural foundations supporting Bitcoin’s growth are stronger than ever. Investors watching MSTR’s trajectory may find it to be more than just a stock play — it’s a window into the future of digital finance.
As we move deeper into 2025, all eyes will be on Washington — but also on Wall Street, where the next chapter of Bitcoin’s evolution is being written.