Bitcoin could be on the brink of a major resurgence, with a prominent analyst forecasting the next bull phase to reignite within just three months. While the current market correction has sparked fear among retail investors, deeper trends suggest a powerful shift is underway—one that could propel BTC to new heights by late 2025 and beyond. According to pseudonymous engineer Apsk32, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains firmly intact, supported by historical cycle patterns and emerging on-chain dynamics.
This analysis leverages the power law model, a well-established framework used to map Bitcoin’s price behavior across its four-year cycles. Unlike short-term speculation, this model focuses on structural support levels that have held true since Bitcoin’s earliest days—even when priced under $1. The insights derived from this approach offer a compelling outlook: despite recent volatility, the foundation for a 300%+ rally by 2026 is being laid today.
👉 Discover how market cycles are shaping the next Bitcoin surge.
Understanding the Power Law Model and Bitcoin’s Fractal Cloud
At the heart of Apsk32’s prediction lies the Bitcoin power law model, which plots a lower support band for BTC’s price based on historical adoption trends. This band has acted as a reliable floor during every major bear market, guiding price recoveries without fail for over a decade.
Overlaying this baseline are multiple "temporal contours"—essentially projected growth paths that reflect different acceleration scenarios. Together, they form what Apsk32 calls the "Fractal Power Law Cloud", a dynamic range indicating where BTC/USD is likely to trade in the coming years.
“The support line crosses $1 million in 2036—and Bitcoin doesn’t stop there.”
While no model guarantees future performance, the consistency of this pattern across multiple cycles lends it significant credibility. According to Apsk32’s latest update on X (formerly Twitter), current price action aligns closely with past mid-cycle corrections. Although recent ETF-fueled momentum briefly pushed prices above the upper boundary of the cloud, the market is now reverting—exactly as expected.
“If the Bitcoin cycle pattern continues, price should remain within or near this blue cloud.”
This reversion isn’t a sign of weakness—it’s part of the natural rhythm of accumulation before the next leg up. And according to the timeline projected by the model, a strong upward acceleration is not expected for at least three more months.
Market Sentiment vs. On-Chain Reality: A Tale of Two Trends
Despite growing anxiety in the crypto space—fueled by a 25% drop from March’s all-time high of $73,800—on-chain data tells a different story. While fear dominates headlines, institutional and long-term investors appear to be stepping in.
Recent data shows net inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs reached nearly $300 million in a single day on July 8, marking the strongest daily performance in over a month. This surge in demand comes at a time when miner selling pressure has weakened significantly, suggesting reduced supply-side stress.
Fuente: Farside Investors
Meanwhile, large-scale sell-offs—such as those from the German government disposing of thousands of BTC—have created buying opportunities for stronger hands. As popular trader Jelle observed:
“Boomers and institutions are buying the dip, while Germany dumps coins.”
This dynamic reflects a broader trend known as "weak hands to strong hands" transfer, where panic-selling retail holders exit positions, allowing more resilient investors to accumulate at lower prices.
Key Support Levels and the Path Forward
With Bitcoin hovering around key psychological levels, attention has turned to the $50,000 mark as a critical support zone. Historically, such levels have acted as springboards for recovery once institutional accumulation reaches a tipping point.
The current correction mirrors previous post-halving adjustments, where prices consolidated for several months before entering parabolic phases. Given that the April 2024 halving has already occurred, the market may now be entering the buildup phase that typically precedes explosive growth.
According to Apsk32’s model:
- BTC remains within the bounds of its long-term fractal cloud.
- A sustained breakout above current resistance could trigger a fourfold increase by late 2025.
- The path to $1 million by 2036 remains structurally viable under base-case adoption assumptions.
👉 Explore how ETF inflows are fueling the next Bitcoin rally.
FAQ: Your Questions About Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run
Q: When is the next Bitcoin bull market expected to start?
A: Based on cycle analysis and power law modeling, the next significant upward acceleration is projected to begin in approximately three months from mid-2024, gaining momentum through late 2025.
Q: What is the power law model for Bitcoin?
A: The power law model tracks Bitcoin’s price growth using historical adoption curves. It establishes a lower support band that has reliably predicted price floors across multiple market cycles since 2011.
Q: Can Bitcoin really reach $1 million by 2036?
A: While not guaranteed, the fractal power law cloud model projects BTC could reach $1 million by 2036 if long-term adoption trends continue at historical rates. This depends on sustained institutional investment and macroeconomic conditions.
Q: Are ETFs changing Bitcoin’s price behavior?
A: Yes. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have introduced new sources of demand and altered short-term volatility patterns. However, core cycle dynamics—such as post-halving consolidation and accumulation phases—remain intact.
Q: What does “weak hands to strong hands” mean?
A: This phrase describes a market phase where retail investors sell during downturns out of fear, while institutions and long-term holders buy at discounted prices, consolidating supply.
Q: How reliable is Apsk32’s analysis?
A: Apsk32’s power law model has demonstrated strong historical accuracy in identifying structural support and long-term trends. While it doesn’t predict short-term swings, it provides valuable context for understanding Bitcoin’s macro trajectory.
Final Outlook: Patience Before the Ascent
While short-term price movements can be unsettling, the broader picture remains constructive for Bitcoin. The combination of declining miner outflows, rising ETF inflows, and alignment with historical cycle models suggests that accumulation is underway.
Though an explosive rally isn’t imminent—estimates point to at least three more months of consolidation—the foundation for substantial gains is being built. Investors who understand these cycles may view current volatility not as a threat, but as an opportunity.
As Apsk32 notes:
“This time could be different… in fact, it already is.”
Yet even with evolving dynamics like ETFs and regulatory shifts, the underlying rhythm of Bitcoin’s market cycles endures. Those positioned at this stage of the cycle may stand to benefit when the next bull phase finally ignites.