Bitcoin Bull Run: Where We Are in the Bull-Bear Cycle

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The Bitcoin bull run is back in focus as analysts examine key market signals to determine where the cryptocurrency stands in its current bull-bear cycle. After a sharp correction that saw Bitcoin drop below $50,000, market sentiment is shifting. Many experts now believe the worst may be over—and that BTC is poised for a strong upward move toward new all-time highs.

This article breaks down the latest analysis from respected crypto traders and on-chain experts, explores whether the recent crash was a bear trap or shake-out, and examines price targets that could signal the next phase of Bitcoin’s rally.

Understanding the Bull-Bear Cycle: Bear Trap or Shake-Out?

Bitcoin’s price recently plunged over 20%, briefly falling beneath the $50,000 mark amid widespread liquidations and investor panic. This sharp correction sparked debate: was it a strategic bear trap, or simply a necessary shake-out to clear weak hands?

A shake-out refers to a sudden price drop designed to force leveraged long positions to liquidate, often triggered by large players (whales) selling off holdings temporarily. It typically occurs during bullish trends and serves to consolidate the market by removing speculative traders.

A bear trap, on the other hand, is a deceptive move where prices fall sharply, convincing investors a bear market has begun—only to reverse quickly and surge higher. In this scenario, those who sold low end up missing the next leg of the rally.

👉 Discover how market cycles shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory and what comes next.

Crypto analyst Sensei, known for accurate BTC forecasts, raised this critical question on X (formerly Twitter): Was Bitcoin’s crash a shake-out or a bear trap? Based on recent price action and on-chain data, Sensei believes the latter is more likely—suggesting we may have just exited the trap phase.

He predicted the bear trap would conclude by mid-August, aligning with BTC reclaiming the $60,000 level—a psychologically important threshold. This recovery hints at renewed buying pressure and weakening bearish control.

Michael van de Poppe, another trusted voice in crypto analysis, echoed similar sentiments. He noted that the magnitude of the correction—wiping out over $1.2 billion in leveraged long positions—could mark the final capitulation event of this cycle. When fear peaks and weak holders exit, it often sets the stage for the next bull phase.

Early Stages of a New Bull Run?

Despite short-term volatility, multiple technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is still in the early stages of its bull run.

Sensei shared a fractal analysis chart comparing current price patterns to previous cycles. Fractals—repeating geometric patterns in price movements—show striking similarities between today’s market structure and early phases of past bull runs, such as those in 2016 and 2020.

According to this model, BTC has not yet entered its parabolic phase. Instead, it appears to be building momentum after a healthy consolidation period. This implies significant upside potential remains untouched.

Key fundamentals support this view:

All these factors point toward a maturing market preparing for sustained growth—not a top forming.

Analyst Predicts $72,000 Bitcoin Price Target

One of the most talked-about forecasts comes from Sensei himself, who projected a $72,000 price target for Bitcoin based on technical chart patterns.

In an August 10 post, he shared a BTC/USD chart highlighting two converging upward trend lines forming a bullish symmetrical triangle—a pattern often preceding major breakouts. The measured move from this formation aligns closely with the $72,000 level.

While Bitcoin currently trades around $60,700 (as of latest CoinMarketCap data), the rebound from $49,000 shows resilience. Even with slight weekly declines, reclaiming $60K signals strong demand at lower levels.

Historically, such recoveries after deep corrections have preceded some of BTC’s strongest rallies. If macroeconomic conditions remain stable and institutional inflows continue, reaching $72,000 within weeks is not out of the question.

👉 See how real-time data can help you anticipate major Bitcoin price moves before they happen.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What is a bear trap in cryptocurrency trading?

A bear trap occurs when the price of an asset drops sharply, leading traders to believe a downtrend is starting. They sell or short the asset—only for the price to reverse rapidly upward. This “traps” bears in losing positions and often fuels a strong rally.

2. How do you tell if Bitcoin is in a bull or bear market?

Key indicators include:

3. Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?

Many analysts believe so. With BTC recovering from a major correction and still below previous all-time highs (~$69K), current levels may represent a strategic entry point before another surge.

4. What causes Bitcoin price crashes?

Common triggers include:

However, crashes within bull markets are often short-lived and followed by stronger rallies.

5. Can Bitcoin reach $100,000 this year?

While $72,000 is the immediate target cited by some analysts, reaching $100,000 depends on broader adoption, ETF inflows, and macro conditions. Historically, BTC has exceeded even the most aggressive forecasts during full bull runs.

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Final Thoughts: Positioning for the Next Leg Up

The evidence suggests Bitcoin has weathered one of its toughest tests in the current cycle. The crash below $50,000 likely served as either a shake-out or bear trap—both of which are typical mid-cycle events—not the start of a prolonged bear market.

With technical patterns favoring higher prices, on-chain data showing accumulation, and analyst consensus turning bullish again, now may be a pivotal moment for strategic positioning.

Whether you're a long-term holder or an active trader, understanding where we stand in the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle can make all the difference in capitalizing on what’s next.

👉 Stay ahead of the next Bitcoin breakout with advanced trading tools and live market insights.

As always, conduct your own research and consider risk management before making investment decisions. But one thing seems clear: the bull run isn’t over—it might just be accelerating.