Bitcoin continues to capture the attention of global financial institutions, with Standard Chartered — one of the world’s leading multinational banks — recently releasing a fresh analysis predicting a bullish trajectory for the leading cryptocurrency. The bank’s digital assets head, Geoff Kendrick, has highlighted a shift in market dynamics, pointing to two emerging catalysts that could redefine Bitcoin’s post-halving performance.
This insight comes amid growing institutional interest and evolving market structures, reinforcing Bitcoin's transition from a speculative asset to a recognized store of value.
Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Outlook: Weaker Downturn Expected
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a cyclical pattern after each halving event — typically experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged correction. However, Standard Chartered suggests this cycle may be different.
Geoff Kendrick stated, “We expect the post-halving decline to be much weaker than in previous cycles.” This optimism stems from structural changes in demand drivers, particularly the rise of institutional participation through corporate treasuries and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
👉 Discover how institutional adoption is reshaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics
The bank maintains its year-end 2025 price target of $200,000, reaffirming confidence in sustained upward momentum despite periodic volatility.
Q3 Forecast: Could Bitcoin Hit $135,000?
Standard Chartered’s latest report projects that Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2025. This forecast is underpinned by strong and consistent demand from institutional buyers.
Kendrick emphasized that corporate balance sheet investments and ETF inflows are now critical price supports — factors absent in earlier Bitcoin cycles. These forces are helping to cushion downside risks and prolong bullish trends.
“Previously, post-halving corrections were deep and extended, often peaking around 18 months after the event,” Kendrick noted. “This time, we anticipate a shallower pullback due to persistent institutional buying pressure.”
Two New Market Forces Driving Bitcoin’s Resilience
One of the most significant takeaways from Standard Chartered’s analysis is the emergence of what Kendrick calls “two new forces” shaping Bitcoin’s price action:
- Corporate Bitcoin Adoption
Companies are increasingly allocating portions of their treasury reserves to Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and monetary debasement. This trend gained momentum after MicroStrategy’s aggressive accumulation strategy became widely publicized. - Bitcoin Spot ETFs
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has opened the floodgates for traditional investors. These funds allow exposure to Bitcoin without custody challenges, making it easier for pension funds, asset managers, and retail investors to participate.
“These two factors were not present in prior cycles,” Kendrick explained. “They provide a structural floor to prices and increase market resilience during downturns.”
Even if quarterly buying volumes fluctuate, the cumulative effect of continuous accumulation — especially during market dips — is expected to keep Bitcoin’s long-term trend firmly upward.
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Addressing ETF Outflows: A Temporary Blip?
Critics have pointed to recent outflows from U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs as a sign of weakening demand. However, Standard Chartered downplays these concerns.
Kendrick acknowledged that after 15 days of positive inflows, there was a $342 million outflow**, but stressed that this represents just **7% of the total $4.8 billion inflow recorded during the same period.
“This minor outflow does not alter the overall bullish narrative,” he said. “Long-term investor sentiment remains strong, and we believe this is merely short-term profit-taking rather than a structural reversal.”
Such fluctuations are normal in maturing markets, especially when new financial products attract both speculative and strategic capital.
Institutional Buying: A Growing Trend Beyond ETFs
Beyond ETFs, corporate adoption is accelerating. According to the report, corporate Bitcoin purchases in early 2025 already reached 245 BTC, and third- and fourth-quarter acquisitions could surpass that figure.
This sustained demand from companies looking to diversify reserves adds another layer of support to Bitcoin’s price foundation. With macroeconomic uncertainties persisting — including inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions — more firms may follow suit.
The combination of ETF-driven retail access and corporate treasury strategies creates a dual-engine demand model unlike anything seen before in crypto markets.
FAQ: Your Questions About Bitcoin’s Future, Answered
Q: Why does Standard Chartered believe the post-halving drop will be weaker?
A: Because of new demand sources — corporate treasury allocations and spot ETFs — that provide continuous buying pressure and reduce selling dominance during corrections.
Q: Is $135,000 a realistic target for Q3 2025?
A: Yes, given current adoption rates, macroeconomic conditions, and historical post-halving momentum. Institutional buying patterns support this trajectory.
Q: Do ETF outflows signal declining interest in Bitcoin?
A: Not necessarily. Short-term outflows are common and often offset by inflows elsewhere. The net trend remains positive, with over $4.8 billion in total inflows outweighing temporary withdrawals.
Q: How do corporate buyers influence Bitcoin’s price stability?
A: Corporate holders tend to buy and hold long-term, reducing circulating supply and creating scarcity. Their commitment acts as a stabilizing force during volatile periods.
Q: What happens if macroeconomic conditions improve?
A: Even in stronger economic environments, Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign, fixed-supply asset remains intact. Its role as a diversification tool ensures continued demand.
Q: Can retail investors still benefit from this trend?
A: Absolutely. Platforms offering secure access to Bitcoin and dollar-cost averaging tools make participation easier than ever for individual investors.
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Conclusion: A New Era for Bitcoin
Standard Chartered’s updated outlook underscores a pivotal shift in how financial institutions view Bitcoin. No longer dismissed as a fringe asset, it is now being integrated into mainstream investment frameworks thanks to institutional adoption and product innovation.
With **Bitcoin potentially reaching $135,000 in Q3 2025** and maintaining resilience through **corporate holdings and ETF demand**, the path toward $200,000 appears increasingly plausible.
As traditional finance continues to embrace digital assets, investors should pay close attention to these structural changes — they may define the next chapter of Bitcoin’s evolution.
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