2025 EY Consumer Goods Global Expansion White Paper

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The global expansion of Chinese consumer goods enterprises has entered a new phase of strategic transformation, moving beyond simple product exports to encompass comprehensive supply chain, brand, and digital globalization. As geopolitical dynamics shift and digital trade evolves, companies must navigate complex regulatory environments, optimize cross-border operations, and build resilient international footprints.

This white paper explores the latest trends in overseas direct investment (ODI), cross-border e-commerce, and supply chain internationalization, while offering actionable insights for businesses at different stages of globalization.

Consumer Industry Global Expansion Overview

China’s outward foreign direct investment (ODI) continues to grow steadily, reaching $162.8 billion** in 2024 across all sectors, with non-financial ODI totaling **$143.8 billion. Key investment destinations include ASEAN nations—particularly Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand—as well as Latin America and the Middle East, driven by brand development and technological advancement.

👉 Discover how global market entry strategies are evolving in 2025.

Overseas M&A Trends in the Consumer Sector

While Chinese consumer companies’ overseas M&A activity declined in 2024—with deal value dropping 52% year-on-year to $1.6 billion** and transaction volume falling to 48 deals—the sector remains active. Notably, investments in Japan, Germany, and New Zealand saw increases. Over the past five years, top target countries by cumulative deal value have been the Netherlands (**$4.4 billion), Saudi Arabia ($3 billion**), the U.S. (**$2.5 billion), Australia ($2 billion**), and Indonesia (**$1.7 billion).

Strategic focus has centered on food & beverage, home appliances, textiles & apparel, and e-commerce platforms. Recent transactions include acquisitions of premium pet food brands in New Zealand, leading home appliance businesses, luxury Italian bedding brands, and local e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia.

Export Trends in the Consumer Goods Industry

Chinese consumer exports demonstrated resilience in 2024 despite global economic headwinds, growing 1% to approximately $1.2 trillion. The top five export categories accounted for over 80% of total shipments:

Notable regional growth was observed in Northern Europe (+16%), Latin America (+14%), and ASEAN (+5%).

Cross-Border E-Commerce Growth

Cross-border e-commerce has become a cornerstone of China’s foreign trade strategy. In 2024, cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached RMB 2.63 trillion (approximately $368 billion), up 10.8% year-on-year and representing 6% of total foreign trade volume.

Exports dominate the sector, accounting for nearly 80% of cross-border e-commerce trade. Key export markets include the U.S. (34.2% share), UK (8.1%), Germany (6.2%), France (4.5%), and fast-growing Asian markets such as Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan.

Top exported product categories are clothing, shoes, and jewelry (27.3%), smartphones and electronics (14.4%), and home textiles (12.4%).

Multi-Department Support for E-Commerce Development

To promote high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce, multiple Chinese government departments—including the Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration—have implemented coordinated policies since 2024.

Key initiatives include:

In 2025, the government work report emphasized further support for cross-border e-commerce through improved logistics systems and expanded overseas warehouse networks.

Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation

As of 2024, China has established e-commerce cooperation mechanisms with 33 countries, fostering policy dialogue, industrial alignment, local collaboration, and capacity building.

China is actively participating in international rule-making through forums such as the WTO, G20, BRICS, APEC, and the Universal Postal Union. It encourages pilot zones to align with high-standard agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA).

Leading Companies Accelerating Supply Chain Internationalization

Top Chinese consumer brands are expanding their global supply chains to enhance resilience and competitiveness:

Stages of Internationalization: From Product Export to Global Integration

Chinese enterprises' global journeys can be categorized into three phases:

Stage 1.0: Product Export

Characterized by low overseas contribution (<20%), limited market coverage, reliance on distributors or third-party platforms, domestic-based R&D/manufacturing, and weak brand premium. Most companies operate under OEM/ODM models.

Stage 2.0: Multinational Operations

Marked by increased overseas revenue share, establishment of foreign subsidiaries, diversified supply chains, expanded product portfolios, growing brand recognition abroad, and partial value chain localization through mergers or greenfield investments.

Stage 3.0: Global Business Operations

Defined by mature overseas revenue dominance (potentially exceeding domestic), full value chain deployment (R&D, manufacturing, logistics, sales), strong global brand influence, high-margin positioning, and sophisticated tax compliance frameworks supporting global operations.

StageCore CharacteristicsMarket CoverageValue ChainBrand ImpactTax Focus
1.0Trade-driven exportLowDomestic R&D/productionLimited recognitionExport compliance
2.0Revenue growth abroadExpandingPartial overseas presenceGrowing awarenessHolding structure optimization
3.0Full globalizationHigh/globalFull international integrationStrong global influenceAdvanced tax strategy

Hotspot: Cross-Border E-Commerce (Stage 1.0)

E-commerce has become a primary channel for Chinese consumer brands entering global markets.

Business Models: Direct Shipping vs. Overseas Warehousing

Direct Shipping:

Overseas Warehousing:
Offers superior pricing, faster delivery times, lower loss rates, and better customer experience—making it the preferred model for many sellers.

Leading logistics providers differentiate themselves through:

👉 Learn how leading logistics players are transforming cross-border trade efficiency.

Tax Considerations for E-Commerce

Cross-border e-commerce involves complex tax obligations across jurisdictions:

Mainland China & Hong Kong

United States

European Union

Unlocking Cash Flow: Pre-VAT Refund Policy

A landmark policy introduced in January 2025 allows exporters using overseas warehouses to claim VAT refunds immediately upon goods departure—before final sale occurs ("refund upon departure"). This significantly improves cash flow.

However, businesses must reconcile actual sales within a defined period (from the month after refund approval until April 30 of the following year). Discrepancies require adjustments to previously claimed refunds.

Companies can choose between multiple models:

Compliance remains challenging due to upstream supplier management and data consistency issues—making professional advisory support essential.

U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Impact on E-Commerce

The re-imposition of tariffs under a second Trump administration has significantly impacted cross-border trade:

These changes threaten the cost advantage of Chinese e-commerce sellers relying on low-value parcel shipments. Many direct-mail exporters may exit the U.S. market unless they adapt through nearshoring or regional hubs like Vietnam.

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Cross-Border Logistics

Opportunities:

  1. Expand overseas warehouse footprint with optimized location selection
  2. Digitize operations through automation, AI, and cloud computing
  3. Offer integrated logistics solutions with value-added services
  4. Strengthen last-mile delivery via local acquisitions or partnerships

Challenges:

  1. Supply chain disruptions and rising freight costs (up 2–5× normal levels)
  2. Fragmented digital infrastructure among SME logistics providers
  3. Talent shortages in international logistics management
  4. Intensifying competition from traditional freight forwarders, tech platforms, and capital-backed entrants

Strategic Site Selection for Global Expansion (Stages 2.0–3.0)

As companies move beyond exporting to establishing production bases abroad, site selection becomes critical.

Key Decision Factors:

Common Challenges:

EY's Three-Phase Site Selection Methodology:

Phase 1: Strategic Planning & Qualification

Define project needs → Screen eligible countries/states → Conduct preliminary site surveys

Phase 2: Detailed Evaluation & Analysis

Assess labor markets, infrastructure → Identify critical risks → Shortlist locations

Phase 3: Deep Due Diligence & Execution

Engage local authorities → Verify utility availability → Participate in public consultations

Quantitative evaluation includes metrics across:

Supporting Enterprises Across Internationalization Stages

EY offers end-to-end solutions tailored to each phase:

Strategy & Entry Phase

Operational Scaling (Stages 2.0–3.0)

Exit & Restructuring

Full lifecycle support including divestiture planning, tax-efficient exits, and post-acquisition integration.

EY’s Global Network and Expertise

With presence in over 150 countries, more than 760 offices, and over 400,000 professionals worldwide, EY delivers integrated services through its China Overseas Investment Network (COIN). In Greater China alone, EY employs over 23,000 people across 34 member firms.

Over the past three years:

Our multidisciplinary team combines deep technical expertise with local market knowledge to guide clients through every stage of globalization.


Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What are the main drivers behind Chinese consumer brands going global?
A: Increasing domestic competition ("involution"), shrinking profit margins, rising demand in emerging markets, supportive government policies on cross-border e-commerce, and advancements in digital infrastructure are key drivers pushing brands overseas.

Q: How does the new “pre-refund” VAT policy benefit exporters?
A: The "refund upon departure" policy allows businesses to receive VAT refunds immediately after shipping goods to overseas warehouses—before final sale—improving cash flow by months compared to traditional post-sale refund models.

Q: Which regions are most attractive for manufacturing relocation?
A: Vietnam stands out due to its proximity to China, lower labor costs, trade agreements with major economies, and growing industrial base. Other popular destinations include Mexico (for nearshoring to the U.S.), Eastern Europe (for EU access), and Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia and Thailand.

Q: How can companies mitigate U.S. tariff risks?
A: Strategies include shifting production to third countries (e.g., Vietnam or Mexico), utilizing free trade agreement benefits, optimizing product classification, leveraging bonded zones, or adopting dual sourcing strategies to diversify supply chains.

Q: What role does digital transformation play in global expansion?
A: Digital tools enable real-time supply chain visibility, automated compliance reporting, intelligent demand forecasting, personalized marketing across regions, and centralized financial controls—critical for managing complexity at scale.

Q: Why is transfer pricing important for multinational consumer goods firms?
A: As operations span multiple jurisdictions with varying tax rates, transfer pricing ensures intercompany transactions reflect arm’s-length principles—avoiding double taxation and complying with evolving global standards like OECD’s Pillar Two rules.