The cryptocurrency market experienced a volatile week from April 1 to April 7, 2025, reversing earlier gains and entering a correction phase. Despite broad weakness across major digital assets, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) stood out with a notable rally following its halving event—sparking renewed speculation: Could Bitcoin (BTC) replicate this trajectory ahead of its own upcoming halving?
This article analyzes the recent market dynamics, BCH’s post-halving performance, and what historical patterns may suggest for BTC’s next move.
Market Recap: Correction Amid Weakening Sentiment
Total crypto market capitalization declined from $2.70 trillion to a low of $2.48 trillion before recovering slightly to $2.60 trillion by week’s end. Investor sentiment weakened significantly, dropping from 77 to 74 on the Fear & Greed Index—the lowest level since March—reflecting growing caution amid macro uncertainty and technical pullbacks.
Major Cryptocurrencies Performance (April 1 – April 7, 2025)
- Uniswap (UNI): Down 8%
- Solana (SOL): Down 7%
- Ethereum (ETH): Down 1%, market dominance stable at 16%
- Bitcoin (BTC): Price nearly flat, but market share increased by 1% to 53%
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Up 6%, outperforming all major peers
While most assets trended downward, BCH defied the broader market trend, continuing its upward momentum following its block reward halving.
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Bitcoin Cash Halving: Rally Followed by Resistance
On April 4, 2025, BCH completed its scheduled halving at block height 630,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BCH. The event triggered an immediate price surge, pushing BCH above $660 with an intraday gain nearing 8%.
Over the following days, prices climbed further, briefly testing the $700 resistance level. However, recent price action shows increasing selling pressure at higher levels—evident in multiple upper wick formations on the daily chart—indicating that bulls are struggling to maintain control.
Key Resistance Ahead for BCH
BCH is now approaching a critical technical zone: the previous rally peak following the 2021 market correction. This region contains significant overhanging supply from traders who previously sold or got trapped during the downturn. Such concentration of sell orders often acts as strong resistance unless sustained buying pressure emerges.
Additionally, while the halving provided short-term bullish momentum, the broader crypto market remains in a corrective phase. With Bitcoin’s own halving approaching around April 20, 2025, capital may be rotating toward BTC anticipation trades, potentially limiting further upside in alternative cryptocurrencies like BCH.
So, will BCH face a “sell the news” correction? Possibly. But the fact that it held gains post-halving—despite weak market conditions—is a positive signal for future halving events, especially BTC’s.
Could Bitcoin Repeat BCH’s Post-Halving Pattern?
Bitcoin itself showed muted price movement last week, trading within its established range of $60,000 to $73,000. After an initial dip, BTC spent five days gradually recovering lost ground, ending the week nearly unchanged.
However, beneath the surface stability lies a powerful technical formation: a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. This pattern typically precedes a strong breakout—either up or down—and Bitcoin has already traversed about two-thirds of it. A directional breakout is likely imminent.
Why an Upside Breakout Is More Likely
While both bullish and bearish outcomes are technically possible, current fundamentals tilt the odds slightly upward:
- No major macro or regulatory headwinds have emerged.
- Institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain steady.
- Historical precedent shows that BTC tends to rally after halving events due to reduced supply inflation.
- Miner behavior post-halving often shifts toward strategic holding, reducing sell pressure.
With BTC’s next halving expected around April 20, 2025, markets are entering a high-anticipation phase. If history rhymes, this could become a catalyst for a significant rally—just as seen with past cycles.
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FAQ: Your Halving Questions Answered
Q: What is a cryptocurrency halving?
A: A halving is a programmed event that cuts the block mining reward in half after a set number of blocks are mined. For Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, this occurs roughly every four years and reduces new supply issuance, potentially increasing scarcity.
Q: Has BTC always gone up after a halving?
A: Not immediately—but historically yes over the medium to long term. Past halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 were followed by major bull runs within 6–18 months. Short-term volatility is common immediately after the event.
Q: Why did BCH rise after its halving while other coins fell?
A: BCH benefited from event-driven buying interest and lower sell pressure from miners post-halving. Its smaller market cap also makes it more responsive to sentiment shifts compared to larger-cap assets like BTC or ETH.
Q: Does BTC’s price usually go up before or after the halving?
A: Price action varies, but rallies often accelerate after the halving due to reduced supply and growing investor attention. Pre-halving periods can be volatile as traders position early.
Q: How might macroeconomic factors affect BTC’s post-halving performance?
A: Strong economic data (like robust jobs reports) can delay Fed rate cuts, pressuring risk assets short-term. However, long-term BTC performance is more tied to monetary policy expectations, inflation hedging demand, and adoption trends.
Q: Can we expect another bull run after the 2025 BTC halving?
A: While nothing is guaranteed, historical patterns combined with increasing institutional adoption and limited supply growth make another bull cycle plausible—especially if macro conditions stabilize by late 2025.
Final Outlook: Cautious Optimism for BTC
Bitcoin’s current consolidation pattern suggests a breakout is near. With no major bearish catalysts in sight and the halving just weeks away, the path of least resistance appears upward.
While BCH’s post-halving performance hasn’t triggered an immediate BTC rally, it has demonstrated resilience in a tough market—reinforcing confidence in the scarcity-driven value proposition shared by both networks.
As we approach April 20, 2025, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s ability to break above $73,000 and sustain momentum. A successful breakout could ignite the next phase of the bull market.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk due to volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.