The world of digital assets is once again on the edge of a potential regulatory milestone, with ether (ETH) poised for a significant price surge if expectations around a spot ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval come to fruition. According to a recent analysis by Standard Chartered Bank, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization could climb nearly 70% to reach $4,000 by May 2025—driven largely by anticipated U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval of spot ether ETFs.
Why May 23 Matters: The Key Date for Spot ETH ETF Approval
Standard Chartered’s research team, led by Geoff Kendrick, projects that the SEC will likely approve spot ether ETF applications on May 23, aligning with the final decision deadlines set for filings by major asset managers including VanEck and Ark/21Shares. This timeline mirrors the regulatory path taken with bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, where initial delays were followed by eventual approvals after prolonged review periods.
The bank draws a direct comparison between BTC and ETH, arguing there is "no fundamental reason" for the SEC to treat ether differently from bitcoin when evaluating ETF applications. Notably, ether futures are already listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)—a regulated derivatives marketplace—which strengthens the case for ETF approval under the same precedent used for bitcoin.
👉 Discover how ETF developments are reshaping crypto investment strategies.
Market Sentiment Still Underestimates Approval Chances
Despite growing optimism in institutional circles, Standard Chartered asserts that current market pricing does not fully reflect the probability of approval. This disconnect presents a potential window of opportunity for investors who position themselves ahead of the expected regulatory green light.
Historical precedent supports this view. When BlackRock filed its spot bitcoin ETF application in mid-June 2023, BTC was trading around $25,000. By January 10, 2024—when the SEC finally approved multiple spot BTC ETFs—the price had surged approximately **85% to $47,000**. A similar trajectory could unfold for ETH as May 23 approaches.
“Heading into the expected approval date on May 23, we expect ETH prices to track, or outperform, bitcoin during the comparable period,” wrote Kendrick and his team.
This projection hinges not only on regulatory momentum but also on structural differences between the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE)—factors that may reduce post-approval selling pressure for ETH.
Less Downward Pressure on ETH vs. BTC After ETF Conversion
One critical distinction highlighted in the report is the relative size and ownership structure of ETHE compared to GBTC. After GBTC converted into an ETF, it experienced massive outflows—over $5 billion—partly due to fire sales by stakeholders such as the FTX bankruptcy estate.
In contrast, ETHE represents a smaller fraction of ether’s total market cap, and its shares held by distressed entities like FTX are proportionally lower. As a result, even if ETHE converts to an ETF, the resulting sell-off is expected to be less severe, preserving upward momentum in ether’s price.
Additionally, Standard Chartered notes that early U.S.-based ether ETFs are unlikely to include staking rewards, meaning investors seeking yield through staking will still need to hold ETH directly or use decentralized platforms—a factor that could further support demand.
👉 Explore secure ways to manage your crypto holdings ahead of major market events.
Core Keywords Driving This Narrative
To align with search intent and enhance discoverability, the following keywords have been naturally integrated throughout this analysis:
- Spot ETH ETF approval
- Ether price prediction
- ETH to $4,000
- SEC crypto regulation
- Grayscale Ethereum Trust
- CME ether futures
- Crypto ETF investment
- Standard Chartered crypto outlook
These terms reflect high-volume queries from investors seeking clarity on regulatory timelines, price targets, and comparative risk factors between BTC and ETH ETFs.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a spot ETH ETF?
A: A spot ether ETF is an exchange-traded fund that directly holds ether tokens rather than derivatives like futures. It allows traditional investors to gain exposure to ETH’s price movements without managing private keys or using crypto exchanges.
Q: Why is May 23 important for ether?
A: May 23 marks the final deadline for SEC decisions on several key spot ETH ETF applications, including those from VanEck and Ark/21Shares. Approval on or around this date could trigger significant market movement.
Q: Will ether ETFs include staking rewards?
A: Initial U.S. spot ETH ETFs are not expected to offer staking rewards. Most proposed funds will track the price of ETH only, excluding yield-generating mechanisms.
Q: How did bitcoin perform after ETF approval?
A: Bitcoin rose about 85% in the months leading up to January 10, 2024, when spot BTC ETFs were approved. However, it later pulled back from its peak due to GBTC outflows and profit-taking.
Q: Is ether considered a security by the SEC?
A: The SEC has not classified ether as a security. Notably, it excluded ETH from its list of 67 cryptocurrencies deemed securities in its lawsuit against Ripple, reinforcing its status as a commodity in regulatory discussions.
Q: Could ETH outperform BTC before the ETF decision?
A: Yes. Standard Chartered suggests ETH may match or exceed BTC’s performance during the pre-approval period due to lower expected outflows and increasing institutional interest.
Final Outlook: A Catalyst-Driven Move Toward $4,000
With regulatory clarity on the horizon and historical patterns suggesting strong pre-approval rallies, ether stands at a pivotal juncture. If the SEC follows its prior precedent with bitcoin and approves spot ETH ETFs by May 23, the resulting influx of institutional capital could propel ETH toward $4,000—a level representing substantial upside from current valuations.
Moreover, unlike bitcoin, ether benefits from ongoing ecosystem growth—driven by decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and real-world asset tokenization—all of which add long-term utility beyond speculative investment.
As markets digest these dynamics, one thing becomes clear: the next few months could redefine ether’s role in mainstream finance.
👉 Stay ahead of crypto’s biggest moments with real-time insights and tools.