Bitcoin has surged 45% since finding support near $75,000 in April, reclaiming strong bullish momentum and now trading just 4% below its all-time high of $112,000. After a prolonged consolidation phase and several failed breakout attempts, the market stands at a pivotal juncture. The next decisive move—whether a breakout into uncharted price territory or a pullback to key support zones around $103,600 and $100,000—could unfold in the coming days.
Amid this tension, macroeconomic conditions have stabilized, risk appetite is returning, and investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic. While bulls maintain control, many are waiting for structural confirmation before increasing exposure. One particularly telling on-chain signal suggests that the foundation for a major upward move may already be forming.
On-Chain Data Hints at Accumulation Ahead of Potential Breakout
A critical metric from CryptoQuant—the 30-day change in Bitcoin’s active supply percentage—is currently showing a drop of 17%. This figure measures the movement of coins over the past 180 days compared to 30 days ago. A negative reading indicates declining on-chain activity, often interpreted as a sign of accumulation or reduced selling pressure.
At first glance, reduced activity might seem bearish. However, historical context paints a different picture. In September 2024, Bitcoin exhibited a nearly identical -17% drop in 30-day active supply—just weeks before a powerful rally took off. This pattern suggests that when fewer coins are moving, supply tightens, creating conditions ripe for explosive price movements once demand returns.
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This tightening effect acts like a coiled spring: the longer the consolidation, the greater the potential energy for an upward breakout. With Bitcoin now hovering just below its all-time high, the current on-chain behavior mirrors previous accumulation phases that preceded strong bullish runs.
What “% Supply Active, 30D Change” Tells Us
The "% Supply Active, 30D Change" metric, popularized by on-chain analyst Axel Adler, offers deep insight into market psychology. It calculates the percentage of Bitcoin supply that has moved within the last six months and compares it to the same figure one month prior. When the value is positive, it signals increased transactional velocity—common during volatile rallies or panic sell-offs. When negative, it reflects reduced movement, typically seen during periods of holding or accumulation.
With the current reading at -17%, we’re witnessing one of the most significant drops in recent months. This slowdown often occurs when long-term holders (HODLers) stop selling and begin consolidating their positions. Exchanges see fewer inflows, wallets go quiet, and overall network activity declines—not because interest is waning, but because confidence is building.
Such phases historically precede major price expansions. Once fresh demand enters the market—triggered by macro catalysts, institutional inflows, or technical breakouts—the constrained supply can drive rapid price appreciation.
Weekly Chart Analysis: Bullish Structure Intact
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals a resilient and structurally sound uptrend. At the time of writing, BTC trades near $107,795, well above the crucial $103,600 support level that has held firm throughout Q2 2025. Since the April low, price action has formed a series of higher lows, reinforcing bullish momentum.
The 50-week moving average now sits at $85,961—rising sharply and acting as strong dynamic support beneath the current trading range. This confirms the medium-to-long-term trend remains firmly intact.
Despite rejections near $109,300 resistance in recent weeks, bulls have successfully defended weekly closes above $100,000. The formation of a tight bullish flag pattern suggests consolidation within an ongoing uptrend. While volume has slightly tapered—a common sign of market hesitation—there’s been no aggressive selling pressure, indicating most participants expect an upside resolution.
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A decisive weekly close above $109,300 would likely trigger algorithmic buying and stop-loss activations, potentially accelerating momentum toward $112,000 and beyond. Conversely, failure to break resistance could lead to another test of the $103,600 floor—a level that has proven resilient multiple times this year.
Core Keywords and Market Implications
Core keywords: Bitcoin active supply, on-chain analysis, BTC price prediction, Bitcoin accumulation phase, 30D active supply, Bitcoin breakout, BTC weekly chart, HODL behavior
These terms reflect both technical depth and growing investor interest in data-driven insights. The current dip in active supply aligns with classic accumulation behavior—a phase where smart money accumulates while retail观望. As on-chain data increasingly informs trading strategies, metrics like 30D active supply are becoming essential tools for anticipating market turns.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does a -17% drop in Bitcoin’s 30D active supply mean?
A: It means significantly fewer Bitcoin are moving on-chain compared to 30 days ago. This often signals accumulation by long-term holders and reduced selling pressure—conditions historically linked to upcoming rallies.
Q: Is low on-chain activity bullish or bearish for Bitcoin?
A: While low activity may seem bearish initially, it's often bullish in context. Reduced movement suggests holders are confident and unwilling to sell, tightening available supply ahead of potential breakouts.
Q: How did Bitcoin perform after similar drops in active supply in the past?
A: In September 2024, a similar -17% drop preceded a major rally. History suggests that such phases of stagnation often end with sharp upward moves once demand returns.
Q: What price levels should I watch for confirmation of a breakout?
A: A sustained close above $109,300 on the weekly chart would confirm bullish momentum. Failure to break this level could lead to retests near $103,600 support.
Q: Can on-chain data predict Bitcoin’s next move with certainty?
A: No single metric guarantees future price action. However, when combined with technical analysis and macro trends, on-chain signals like active supply provide valuable probabilistic insights.
Q: Why is Bitcoin consolidating near its all-time high?
A: Consolidation at ATH levels is common as markets absorb supply and sentiment balances. It often precedes either a breakout into new territory or a deeper correction—depending on broader market structure.
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Final Outlook: A Breakout May Be Imminent
Bitcoin stands at the edge of a potential expansion phase. Favorable macro conditions, strong technical structure, and declining on-chain activity all point to a market preparing for its next major move. The parallels between today’s -17% drop in 30D active supply and the pre-rally conditions of late 2024 are too striking to ignore.
While short-term volatility remains possible, the broader narrative continues to strengthen. Investors who understand the significance of accumulation phases—and know where to look for early signals—are best positioned to navigate what could be one of Bitcoin’s most dynamic chapters yet.