Stellar (XLM) has surged 10% in the past 24 hours, marking one of its strongest daily performances in recent weeks. Over the last 30 days, the cryptocurrency has gained more than 25%, signaling renewed investor interest. Despite this momentum, XLM remains below the psychologically significant $0.30 threshold—a level it has struggled to reclaim since early March. As technical indicators flash bullish signals, the market now watches a critical resistance zone at $0.279, which could determine whether Stellar is poised for a breakout or faces another consolidation phase.
RSI Surge Signals Growing Bullish Momentum
One of the most notable developments in Stellar’s recent price action is the sharp rise in its Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI has climbed to 62.21, up from just 31.47 two days prior, indicating a rapid shift from oversold conditions to strengthening bullish momentum.
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The RSI is a widely used technical indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes, ranging from 0 to 100. Readings below 30 typically suggest an asset is oversold, while values above 70 indicate overbought conditions. With XLM’s RSI now at 62.21, it sits comfortably in the bullish zone—strong enough to confirm upward momentum but not yet overbought, leaving room for further gains.
This rebound reflects a broader market sentiment shift, as traders begin rotating back into undervalued assets following a prolonged downturn. A sustained move above 70 could signal strong bullish conviction, but traders should remain cautious of potential pullbacks if buying pressure begins to wane.
CMF Turns Positive—But Accumulation Remains Cautious
Another key indicator showing improvement is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which has turned positive at 0.04 after dropping to -0.32 just three days ago. This shift suggests a temporary reversal in capital flow, with buying pressure now slightly outweighing selling pressure.
However, the current CMF value remains modest. Historically, a reading above 0.10 is required to confirm strong institutional accumulation. Since April 28, Stellar has failed to maintain CMF above this threshold, indicating that while retail interest is rising, large-scale investment inflows have yet to fully materialize.
The CMF evaluates money flow based on trading volume and price movement over a set period, typically 20 days. Values above zero reflect net buying activity, while negative values point to net selling. At 0.04, XLM shows early signs of accumulation—encouraging but not definitive.
For a sustainable uptrend, traders will want to see the CMF climb and hold above 0.10, accompanied by rising volume. Until then, the market may remain cautious despite short-term optimism.
Golden Cross on Horizon—Breakout or False Hope?
Stellar’s price is currently consolidating between $0.267 (support) and $0.279 (resistance), forming a tight range that often precedes significant directional moves. More importantly, the gap between its short-term and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) is narrowing—a potential precursor to a golden cross.
A golden cross occurs when the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA, widely regarded as a long-term bullish signal in technical analysis. While the full crossover hasn’t occurred yet, the tightening EMAs suggest market participants are reaching equilibrium ahead of a potential breakout.
If XLM breaks above $0.279 with strong volume, it could accelerate toward $0.30—the immediate psychological target. Further upside targets include $0.349 and $0.375, with an extended rally potentially pushing prices toward $0.443 if momentum holds.
Conversely, failure to breach resistance could lead to a retest of $0.267 support. A breakdown below this level might open the door to lower levels at $0.25, $0.239, and eventually $0.230—levels not seen since late 2024.
Key Risk Factor: Supply Concentration
Beyond technicals, structural concerns persist around supply distribution. Data reveals that the top 10 XLM wallets control nearly 80% of the circulating supply—a high concentration that increases vulnerability to volatility if large holders decide to sell.
Additionally, Binance’s XLM holdings have ballooned from 180 million to 1 billion tokens since late 2023. Such accumulation by major exchanges can act as a double-edged sword: it may signal confidence in future growth, but it also raises concerns about potential sell-offs during periods of profit-taking.
Real-World Asset Adoption Fuels Long-Term Outlook
Despite short-term price challenges, Stellar continues to strengthen its position in the tokenized real-world assets (RWA) sector—an emerging frontier in blockchain finance.
In 2025 alone, Stellar’s RWA market has expanded by 84%, driven by partnerships with established financial institutions like Franklin Templeton and Circle. These collaborations have helped onboard over $500 million in on-chain asset value, showcasing the network’s growing utility beyond speculative trading.
Stellar’s low-cost, high-speed infrastructure makes it an ideal platform for issuing and transferring tokenized bonds, funds, and other traditional financial instruments. As global interest in RWAs grows, Stellar stands to benefit from increased transaction volume and ecosystem development.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is causing Stellar’s recent price surge?
A: The recent rally is driven by improving technical indicators—including a rising RSI and positive CMF—as well as growing interest in Stellar’s role in the tokenized real-world asset space.
Q: Can XLM break above $0.30?
A: A breakout above $0.30 is possible if XLM clears the immediate resistance at $0.279 with strong volume and sustained buying pressure. The formation of a golden cross would further support bullish expectations.
Q: What are the major risks for XLM investors?
A: Key risks include high supply concentration among top wallets and exchange reserves, which could trigger sharp sell-offs. Additionally, failure to maintain momentum above key technical levels may lead to renewed downside pressure.
Q: Is Stellar a good long-term investment?
A: Stellar shows strong fundamentals in the RWA sector and has strategic partnerships with major financial players. For investors focused on blockchain adoption in traditional finance, XLM presents compelling long-term potential.
Q: What does a golden cross mean for XLM?
A: A golden cross signals a potential long-term bullish trend, typically occurring when the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA. If confirmed, it could attract institutional interest and drive further price appreciation.
Q: How does RSI help predict XLM’s price movement?
A: RSI helps identify overbought or oversold conditions. XLM’s current RSI of 62.21 suggests strong upward momentum without being overextended, indicating room for further gains if buying continues.
Stellar’s recent performance reflects a market regaining confidence after a prolonged consolidation period. With technical indicators turning favorable and real-world adoption accelerating, XLM is positioning itself for potential growth in both price and utility.
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While resistance at $0.279 remains a hurdle, overcoming it could unlock significant upside potential toward $0.349 and beyond. Investors should monitor volume patterns, CMF trends, and on-chain activity closely to gauge the strength of any breakout attempt.
As always, conduct thorough research and consider risk management strategies before entering any position in volatile markets like cryptocurrency.