Ondo (ONDO) is facing growing downward pressure as market sentiment weakens amid an upcoming major token unlock. After dropping over 21% last week, ONDO continued its decline on Monday, trading around $1.16. The bearish momentum comes just days before a significant supply event—the release of 20% of locked ONDO tokens, equivalent to 134% of the current circulating supply, scheduled for January 18, 2025.
This unlock has sparked concerns among traders and investors, as a sudden influx of sell orders could further depress the price. Combined with weakening on-chain activity and negative funding rates, the short-term outlook for Ondo appears increasingly bearish.
👉 Discover how major token unlocks impact crypto prices and what smart investors do next.
Understanding the 20% ONDO Token Unlock
The Ondo Foundation recently announced via Twitter that it will begin transferring locked ONDO tokens in preparation for the first release from the Global Lock-Up. These movements are primarily intended to:
- Distribute tokens to locked holders
- Enhance security through decentralized custody
- Facilitate the official unlocking process
On January 18, 20% of previously locked ONDO will become liquid. Given that this volume represents 134% of the current circulating supply, even partial selling could significantly impact market dynamics.
Historically, large token unlocks—especially those exceeding existing circulation—tend to create downward price pressure unless matched by strong demand. If early recipients decide to cash out, exchanges may see a surge in sell-side liquidity, potentially triggering stop-loss cascades or margin liquidations.
Market participants should closely monitor wallet movements in the days leading up to and following the unlock. Tools like blockchain explorers and on-chain analytics platforms can help detect large transfers from vesting wallets or institutional addresses.
"Ondo Foundation would like to note in advance to the community that, in the coming days, there will be a variety of locked ONDO transfers in preparation for the first release from the Global Lock-Up."
— Ondo Foundation (@OndoFoundation) January 12, 2025
While the foundation emphasizes that these actions are part of standard protocol operations, investor confidence remains fragile amid broader crypto market uncertainty.
Bearish On-Chain Indicators Signal Weak Demand
Beyond the looming supply shock, several on-chain metrics suggest weakening demand for ONDO.
Negative Funding Rate Reflects Bearish Sentiment
According to Coinglass data, the OI-weighted funding rate for ONDO is currently at -0.047%, and has remained negative since early January. In perpetual futures markets:
- A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts, indicating bullish sentiment
- A negative rate means shorts pay longs, signaling bearish dominance
With ONDO’s rate in negative territory, more traders are positioned on the short side, betting on further price declines. Sustained negative funding often precedes or accompanies downtrends, especially when combined with other red flags.
Daily Active Addresses Plummet
Another concerning trend is the sharp drop in daily active addresses, a key measure of network engagement tracked by Santiment.
- Peak activity was recorded on December 16, with 3,691 active addresses
- By Monday, this number had fallen to just 1,929—a decline of nearly 48%
This sustained drop suggests declining user interest and reduced on-chain interaction. Fewer transactions typically correlate with lower utility perception and weaker organic demand, both of which undermine price resilience during market stress.
👉 Learn how to interpret funding rates and active address trends before major market moves.
What This Means for Ondo Price Prediction
Given the confluence of factors—the massive token unlock, falling active usage, and sustained bearish positioning—the short-term price trajectory for ONDO appears challenged.
Potential Scenarios Post-Unlock
| Scenario | Likelihood | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Large portion of unlocked tokens sold immediately | High | Sharp price drop, possible breakdown below $1.00 |
| Holders adopt a wait-and-see approach; minimal selling | Moderate | Price stabilizes near current levels |
| Strong buying pressure absorbs new supply | Low | Bullish reversal if volume supports |
With no major protocol upgrades or news catalysts announced, the path of least resistance seems downward unless external market conditions improve.
Technical analysis also supports caution. ONDO has broken below key moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, suggesting a shift from bullish to bearish momentum. Resistance looms around $1.30–$1.40, while immediate support sits at $1.05. A break below this level could open the door to $0.85–$0.90 in the coming weeks.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
When is the ONDO token unlock happening?
The Ondo Foundation has confirmed that 20% of locked ONDO tokens will be unlocked on January 18, 2025. This marks the first major release from the Global Lock-Up program.
How much of the circulating supply does the unlock represent?
The upcoming unlock equals approximately 134% of the current circulating supply, making it a highly significant event that could influence price stability.
Why is the funding rate negative for ONDO?
A negative funding rate indicates that more traders are shorting ONDO than going long. At -0.047%, it reflects prevailing bearish sentiment in the futures market.
What do declining active addresses mean for ONDO?
Falling daily active addresses suggest reduced network usage and waning user interest. This lack of organic activity can weaken price support during sell-offs.
Can ONDO recover after the unlock?
Recovery depends on whether buying pressure can absorb the new supply. Without strong catalysts or improved market conditions, a rebound may be delayed.
Where can I track ONDO’s on-chain data?
You can monitor real-time metrics such as active addresses, exchange flows, and whale movements using platforms like Santiment, Glassnode, and CoinGecko.
👉 Stay ahead with real-time on-chain analytics and predictive market insights.
Final Outlook: Caution Ahead
The combination of a massive token unlock, declining on-chain activity, and negative trader sentiment paints a cautious picture for Ondo in early 2025. While long-term prospects depend on adoption and ecosystem development, short-term traders should prepare for increased volatility and potential downside risk.
Investors are advised to:
- Monitor wallet flows pre- and post-unlock
- Set stop-loss levels to manage downside exposure
- Avoid aggressive entry points until signs of stabilization emerge
As always, conducting independent research and staying informed about macro trends and project updates remains critical when navigating high-volatility assets like ONDO.
With proper risk management and timely insights, market participants can better position themselves—whether preparing for a dip-buy opportunity or safeguarding capital during uncertain phases.