The XRP token has surged 27% over the past 30 days, climbing to nearly $2.40 following a pivotal development in the long-running legal battle between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). After years of litigation, both parties have reportedly agreed on a $50 million settlement—marking a dramatic de-escalation from the SEC’s initial $2 billion penalty demand. This resolution has ignited renewed investor confidence, triggering strong price momentum and bullish on-chain metrics.
Market sentiment around XRP has shifted decisively, with technical indicators signaling sustained upward potential. As broader crypto markets stabilize, XRP’s breakout from key resistance zones suggests the rally may be far from over. This article explores the settlement details, analyzes critical technical and on-chain data, and evaluates possible price trajectories for XRP in the coming weeks.
Ripple Resolves SEC Dispute, Fueling XRP Surge
In March 2024, the SEC sought court approval to impose a staggering $2 billion fine on Ripple for alleged violations of U.S. securities laws. That figure was later reduced to $125 million before being further negotiated down. On May 8, 2025, Ripple and the SEC jointly filed a proposal agreeing to a $50 million settlement—an 97.5% reduction from the original ask.
This breakthrough has eliminated a major overhang that had weighed on XRP’s price and market perception for years. The resolution signals regulatory clarity and strengthens Ripple’s position in the U.S. financial ecosystem.
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Following the news, XRP’s price chart displayed a powerful bullish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe. Prior to the announcement, XRP was trading around $2.12 amid a general market recovery. Afterward, it surged toward $2.40, printing seven consecutive green candles—indicating strong and sustained buying pressure.
The price action also broke free from a descending channel pattern that had defined its recent bearish trend. Additionally, the formation of a bull flag prior to the breakout adds technical credibility to the current rally. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator rose to 0.21, confirming increased accumulation by investors.
With sentiment firmly in favor of bulls, XRP appears poised for further upside if momentum holds.
On-Chain Data Shows XRP Is Not Overvalued
Despite the impressive 27% rally, on-chain metrics suggest XRP remains fundamentally undervalued relative to historical cycles.
Glassnode data reveals that XRP’s realized price—the average cost basis of all existing coins—is currently $1.05. With the spot price hovering near $2.40, this implies most holders are sitting on substantial unrealized profits without signs of mass selling.
More importantly, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at 2.22. Historically, XRP has reached local or cycle highs when the MVRV ratio climbs between 2.59 and 4.26. At present levels, the asset is still well below overvaluation thresholds.
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This gap indicates there is room for further appreciation before speculative excess sets in. A rising MVRV ratio under controlled volume growth typically reflects healthy adoption rather than bubble-like behavior.
As long as the ratio remains below 2.59, analysts expect XRP to continue its upward trajectory—potentially surpassing $3 in the medium term.
Technical Outlook: Can XRP Reach $3.40?
Daily chart analysis paints an increasingly optimistic picture for XRP.
Previously confined within a falling parallel channel, XRP has now broken above the upper trendline resistance at $2.28. This breakout invalidates the prior bearish structure and opens the door for higher highs.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 62.03—firmly in bullish territory but not yet overbought (which typically begins above 70). This balance suggests room for further upside without immediate risk of correction.
If buying pressure persists, the next major resistance level lies at $2.72. A decisive close above this point could propel XRP toward a new 2025 high of $3.40—an approximately 42% increase from current levels.
However, should broader market conditions sour or profit-taking accelerate, a pullback remains possible. In such a scenario, support levels to watch include $2.28 (former resistance), followed by $1.60—the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the recent uptrend.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why did the SEC reduce its fine from $2 billion to $50 million?
A: While official statements haven't detailed the reasoning, legal analysts believe the reduction reflects evolving regulatory understanding of digital assets and likely stems from settlement negotiations aimed at avoiding prolonged litigation.
Q: Does this settlement mean XRP is officially classified as a non-security?
A: The settlement does not include an explicit ruling on XRP’s classification. However, the reduced penalty and lack of admission of wrongdoing by Ripple suggest regulators may be softening their stance.
Q: What on-chain metrics should I monitor for XRP?
A: Key indicators include MVRV ratio, realized price, exchange netflow, and whale wallet activity—all of which help gauge investor sentiment and potential price direction.
Q: Is now a good time to buy XRP?
A: With strong technicals and improving fundamentals, many analysts view this as a favorable entry point. However, all investments carry risk—conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance.
Q: Could XRP reach $5 in 2025?
A: While $5 is ambitious given current momentum, it would require sustained adoption, favorable regulation, and broader bull market conditions. A more conservative target remains $3–$3.40 in the near term.
Q: How does this affect Ripple’s business operations?
A: Resolving the lawsuit removes legal uncertainty, enabling Ripple to expand partnerships with financial institutions and accelerate product development in cross-border payments.
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Conclusion
The proposed $50 million settlement between Ripple and the SEC marks a turning point for XRP. After years of legal ambiguity, the resolution clears a major obstacle and renews investor confidence.
With technical indicators flashing bullish signals and on-chain data showing room for growth, XRP is positioned for continued upside. While challenges remain—including regulatory clarity and macroeconomic factors—the path forward looks significantly brighter.
As momentum builds, traders and long-term holders alike are watching closely to see whether XRP can突破 resistance and achieve new highs in 2025. For those seeking exposure to digital assets with real-world utility and improving fundamentals, XRP remains one of the most compelling narratives in the market today.