Hedera (HBAR) has emerged as one of the standout performers in the cryptocurrency market over recent months, drawing attention from traders and analysts alike. After a parabolic rally that pushed its price up by over 800%, HBAR now faces a critical juncture. While momentum remains strong on the weekly chart, signs are emerging on the daily timeframe that a deeper correction could still unfold before the next leg of the uptrend begins.
This analysis dives into the technical structure, key resistance and support levels, and market sentiment surrounding HBAR. We’ll explore whether the recent dip marks a healthy consolidation or if further downside risk remains before bullish momentum resumes.
HBAR Reaches Key Resistance at $0.374
The weekly chart for HBAR/USDT reveals a powerful upward move that began in November, characterized by five consecutive bullish candlesticks. This sustained rally carried the price from sub-$0.05 levels to an all-time high of **$0.392** on December 3 — an astonishing increase of 820% in just over a month.
During this surge, HBAR broke through two major technical barriers:
- A long-standing ascending trendline resistance
- The psychological and technical $0.246 horizontal resistance zone
However, the rally stalled near $0.374, which now stands as a critical resistance level. This zone aligns with both a historical price ceiling and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, making it a confluence of technical significance.
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Last week marked a shift in tone when HBAR formed its first bearish weekly candle in six weeks, signaling potential exhaustion. Despite the pullback, the $0.246 level has held firm as support, creating a defined trading range between **$0.246 and $0.374**.
From a technical standpoint, indicators remain constructive:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising and sits above 50, indicating underlying strength.
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is positive and trending upward, reinforcing bullish momentum.
These signals suggest that while short-term profit-taking may occur, the broader trend remains intact. A breakout above $0.374 could trigger renewed buying pressure and open the path toward new highs.
Market Sentiment Remains Bullish
Despite the recent correction, investor sentiment around Hedera remains largely optimistic. On social platforms like X (formerly Twitter), analysts point to bullish technical patterns and growing institutional interest.
Notable voices in the crypto space highlight key developments:
- Coinvo identified a hidden bullish divergence in the RSI on the weekly chart — a pattern often seen before trend resumptions.
- Analyst Solberg believes HBAR is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, with a breakout likely to reignite the rally.
Beyond technicals, fundamental catalysts are fueling optimism:
- Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, recently suggested that Litecoin and Hedera could be among the first altcoins to receive approved spot ETFs in 2025.
- There are also unconfirmed market rumors about potential inclusion of U.S.-linked cryptocurrencies like HBAR in a future Strategic National Reserve, though no official policy has been announced.
While such news should be taken with caution, it underscores growing recognition of Hedera’s enterprise-grade distributed ledger technology and its compliance-focused framework — qualities that may appeal to regulators and institutions alike.
Daily Chart Signals Potential Retracement
Zooming into the daily chart reveals a more cautious picture. While the weekly trend is bullish, the shorter timeframe suggests that HBAR may not be done correcting just yet.
According to Elliott Wave theory — a widely used method for analyzing market cycles — HBAR likely completed a five-wave impulsive advance starting in November. This type of move typically precedes a corrective phase, often structured as an A-B-C pattern.
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Current price action appears consistent with Wave C of an A-B-C correction, which could extend down to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.219. This would represent a roughly 11% drop from current levels but still keep the larger uptrend intact.
Supporting this view:
- The daily RSI shows bearish divergence, meaning price made a higher high while momentum weakened — a classic warning sign.
- The MACD has generated a bearish crossover and is now trending downward, reinforcing near-term selling pressure.
If this correction plays out as expected, a bounce from the $0.219–$0.246 zone could set the stage for the next upward leg, potentially surpassing previous highs with stronger fundamentals and broader adoption.
What’s Next for HBAR?
After such a dramatic rally, some consolidation is natural. The key question is whether HBAR has found its bottom or if more downside lies ahead.
Bullish Case: If HBAR holds above $0.246 and breaks back above $0.374 with volume, it would confirm that the correction has ended. This could lead to a retest of $0.392 and beyond, especially if ETF speculation gains traction in 2025.
Bearish Risk: A break below $0.246 could accelerate selling, targeting $0.219 or even lower. While this wouldn’t invalidate the long-term trend, it would delay any resumption of upward momentum.
A decisive close above $0.374 will be required to confirm that the correction phase is complete and that buyers are back in control.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is HBAR in a bull or bear market?
A: On the weekly timeframe, HBAR remains in a bull market due to higher highs and strong technical indicators. However, the daily chart suggests a short-term bearish correction may still be underway.
Q: What is the next major resistance for HBAR?
A: The immediate resistance is at $0.374**, followed by the all-time high of **$0.392. A breakout above these levels could trigger renewed bullish momentum.
Q: Where is key support for HBAR?
A: The primary support zone lies between $0.219 and $0.246. The upper end ($0.246) has already acted as support, while $0.219 represents a deeper correction target based on Fibonacci analysis.
Q: Could HBAR get a spot ETF?
A: While nothing is confirmed, analysts like Eric Balchunas have suggested that Hedera is among the altcoins with a plausible path to a spot ETF in 2025 — particularly given its regulatory clarity and enterprise use cases.
Q: How does Elliott Wave theory apply to HBAR?
A: HBAR appears to have completed a five-wave impulse upward, which typically precedes an A-B-C correction. Traders are watching for completion of Wave C before expecting another bullish phase.
Q: Is now a good time to buy HBAR?
A: That depends on your strategy. Conservative investors may wait for a confirmed breakout above $0.374 or a clean bounce from $0.219. Aggressive traders might consider gradual entries within the current range.
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Hedera continues to demonstrate resilience amid broader market volatility. With strong technical foundations, growing analyst attention, and potential regulatory tailwinds on the horizon, HBAR remains one of the most watched altcoins heading into 2025.
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Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.