The momentum behind XRP is building as approval odds for a spot XRP ETF surge to 85%, reigniting bullish sentiment among traders and analysts. With shifting regulatory dynamics and strong technical signals, many now believe that XRP could break past its previous all-time highs in 2025.
Rising ETF Approval Odds Fuel Market Optimism
Recent developments at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have significantly boosted confidence in the potential approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas updated his forecast, stating that the five pending XRP ETF applications—submitted by major financial players including Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton—now have an 85% chance of approval.
This marks a notable increase from just over two months ago, when the estimated odds stood at 65%. The shift follows the appointment of Paul Atkins as the new SEC chair, a move widely interpreted as signaling a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment.
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Market prediction platforms like Polymarket reflect this growing optimism. As of late April, the odds of an XRP ETF being approved by December 31, 2025, sit at 80%, up 17 percentage points from April 23. This rapid change in sentiment underscores increasing confidence among investors that regulatory hurdles may soon be cleared.
While the SEC recently postponed its decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF application—now setting a new deadline for June 17—this delay is seen by many as procedural rather than indicative of rejection. Such pauses are common during complex regulatory reviews, especially when multiple applications are under consideration.
Technical Indicators Suggest Bullish Reversal Potential
Despite a recent 5% price dip triggered by weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP data, XRP’s underlying market structure remains resilient. On the daily chart, XRP is forming a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation characterized by two converging trendlines connecting lower lows and lower highs. This pattern typically signals weakening selling pressure and often precedes strong upward breakouts.
For the pattern to confirm, XRP must break above the upper resistance trendline near $2.40. A successful breakout could propel the price toward $3.74—a potential gain of approximately 71% from current levels.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits above the 50 midline, indicating that buying momentum continues to dominate. This suggests that despite short-term volatility, long-term sentiment remains favorable.
To sustain a recovery, however, key support and resistance zones must be respected:
- Support level: $2.20 must hold to prevent further downside.
- Resistance zone: Between $2.80 and $3.00 lies a critical barrier that buyers will need to overcome for sustained upward movement.
Analysts Forecast Aggressive Price Targets
Market analysts are increasingly vocal about XRP’s upside potential. Popular trader Dark Defender recently highlighted that the current price correction aligns with an Elliott Wave pattern—a technical analysis model used to predict future market movements based on crowd psychology and wave cycles.
“The pullback we’re seeing is textbook perfect,” he noted, adding that this phase sets the stage for XRP to “continue its climb to the top.”
Another prominent voice, Allincrypto, has gone even further, predicting a bold target of $19.27 if XRP breaks out of its falling wedge formation.
“We had highlighted a falling wedge on XRP, which ultimately points to a continuation toward $19.27.”
While such targets may seem ambitious, they reflect growing confidence in both technical patterns and fundamental catalysts—particularly the prospect of ETF approval unlocking institutional demand.
Why an XRP ETF Matters
An approved spot XRP ETF would represent a transformative milestone for the asset class. It would provide regulated, accessible exposure to XRP for traditional investors, pension funds, and institutional portfolios—many of which are restricted from holding cryptocurrencies directly.
ETFs also enhance liquidity, transparency, and price discovery while reducing counterparty risk. Historically, similar products for Bitcoin and Ethereum have preceded significant price rallies following approval.
With Ripple’s ongoing legal clarity following its partial victory against the SEC, and now favorable leadership changes at the commission, the path toward regulatory acceptance appears clearer than ever.
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Core Keywords Driving Market Interest
Key terms currently shaping search interest and market discussion around XRP include:
- XRP ETF approval
- XRP price prediction 2025
- Ripple SEC case update
- XRP technical analysis
- spot XRP ETF
- XRP all-time high
- XRP resistance levels
- falling wedge pattern
These keywords not only reflect investor curiosity but also align with high-volume search queries, making them essential for SEO visibility and content relevance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will an XRP ETF definitely be approved in 2025?
While nothing is guaranteed, current odds suggest strong likelihood. With approval probabilities rising to 85% among experts and 80% on prediction markets, momentum is clearly building. However, final decisions rest with the SEC, and timelines remain subject to regulatory processes.
What happens to XRP price if the ETF is approved?
Historical precedents suggest positive impact. When spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in early 2024, BTC saw sustained price appreciation and increased institutional inflows. A similar effect could occur with XRP, especially given its lower market cap and higher growth potential.
Is XRP in a bull or bear market right now?
XRP is currently in a transitional phase. Though it experienced a short-term dip due to macroeconomic data, technical indicators like the falling wedge and rising RSI point toward a potential bullish reversal. The overall structure favors upside if key resistance levels are breached.
Can XRP reach $10 or higher?
Some analysts project targets as high as $19.27 based on technical patterns and volume analysis. While reaching $10+ depends on multiple factors—including ETF approval, adoption growth, and broader market conditions—it becomes more plausible in a high-conviction bullish scenario.
How does the SEC leadership change affect XRP?
The swearing-in of Paul Atkins as SEC chair is viewed as a pro-innovation shift. His background suggests a more balanced approach to crypto regulation compared to previous leadership, increasing the chances of fair treatment for digital assets like XRP.
What should traders watch next?
Key levels to monitor:
- Break above $2.40 (confirms falling wedge)
- Defense of $2.20 support
- June 17 decision deadline for Franklin Templeton’s ETF
Additionally, keep an eye on SEC announcements and any updates from other ETF filers.
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Final Outlook: A Pivotal Year for XRP
As we move deeper into 2025, XRP stands at a critical juncture. Regulatory winds are shifting favorably, technical charts are flashing bullish signals, and investor sentiment is climbing. While short-term fluctuations will persist—driven by macroeconomic data or profit-taking—the broader trajectory appears upward.
Whether XRP reaches new all-time highs this year will depend largely on ETF developments. But with odds now heavily favoring approval, many believe the upside outweighs the risks.
For traders and long-term holders alike, staying informed and strategically positioned could prove rewarding in what may become one of crypto’s most consequential narratives of the year.