Bitcoin’s price has been on a rollercoaster ride recently—surging past $10,000, briefly touching $10,500, then sharply pulling back to below $9,700 before stabilizing in the $9,500–$9,900 range. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $9,677.
Despite the short-term correction, market sentiment remains largely optimistic. With Bitcoin’s third halving event expected in May 2025, many investors believe the so-called “halving rally” is already underway. This growing consensus suggests that reduced block rewards will tighten supply, potentially fueling a sustained price increase.
However, skepticism persists. Some analysts argue that price surges and sudden dips aren’t organic market movements but rather the result of manipulation by large holders—commonly known as “whales.” Critics point to artificial buy walls and spoofed orders as tools used to mislead retail traders and inflate prices.
For instance, when BTC was trading around $9,000, a well-known whale address labeled Joe007 claimed the rally was artificially propped up by fake order books. The idea? Large players create illusionary demand to trigger FOMO (fear of missing out) among smaller investors.
Ironically, some traders have accused Joe007 of contributing to a sharp price drop on January 15, a view supported by Bitfinex CTO Paolo Ardoino. The theory suggests that after removing large sell walls during low-liquidity weekend hours, the whale helped push BTC below $10,000—highlighting how single actors might influence short-term volatility.
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But is Bitcoin truly under the thumb of a few powerful whales? To answer this, we analyzed on-chain metrics in collaboration with Chain.info—and the findings may surprise you.
Whale Watch: Are Big Players Moving the Market?
To understand whether whales are manipulating prices, we need to look beyond speculation and examine actual blockchain activity.
In theory, with full Bitcoin node data, one could reconstruct every transaction since the genesis block in 2009. But with over 200GB of raw data, processing it isn’t practical for most. Plus, average users rarely interact directly with the blockchain—most transactions occur off-chain through exchanges.
So what does a large on-chain transfer actually mean?
There are four primary explanations:
- A major buyer has acquired a large volume of BTC (implying an equally large seller).
- An exchange is rebalancing its internal wallets.
- A whale is moving funds to an exchange in preparation for selling (a potential bearish signal).
- A minor transfer designed to spook retail investors and trigger panic selling (rare and hard to prove).
Using Chain.info’s on-chain analytics, we found that large transfers (over 50 BTC) have not significantly increased over the past ten weeks. While daily transaction value in USD has seen a modest uptick, the volume of large transfers remains flat—except for a one-time spike on February 6 due to a single entity’s movement (adjusted, this day shows ~45,000 BTC in large transfers).
This suggests that major holders are not actively buying or selling. Instead, they appear to be waiting—watching the market from the sidelines.
The Rise of the “Small Whales”: Who’s Really Accumulating?
While big whales stay cautious, a different trend is emerging: smaller holders are aggressively accumulating BTC.
According to a recent report by Kraken, addresses holding between 10 and 100 BTC—often called “small whales”—have been steadily increasing their holdings since early 2025. These mid-tier investors are showing strong conviction, treating Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.
Even more telling? Starting in February, this accumulation trend began spreading upward. The number of addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC surged—indicating that earlier confidence among smaller whales is now influencing larger players.
Kraken analysts suggest this momentum could soon ripple up to 1,000–10,000 BTC holders, triggering a broader phase of accumulation across all whale tiers.
This behavior mirrors historical patterns seen before previous bull runs. As more investors hold rather than sell, market liquidity tightens—a dynamic that often precedes significant price increases.
Glassnode data supports this: since Bitcoin’s 2018 low at $3,120, the number of addresses holding 0.1 to 1 BTC has grown by 10%. Retail participation is rising, and so is conviction.
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Exchange Data: Where Are Users Going?
Beyond whale behavior, exchange inflows and user activity offer another window into market dynamics.
Chain.info data shows that top-tier exchanges are pulling ahead in user growth and BTC deposits. Let’s break it down:
- Coinbase led in new BTC deposit addresses in January, adding more than Binance and Huobi combined.
- However, due to Coinbase’s policy allowing address rotation, these numbers may slightly overstate actual user growth.
- In terms of growth rate, Huobi topped the list with a 17.3% increase in new deposit addresses, followed closely by OKEx.
When looking at active users (existing deposit addresses used in January), Huobi and OKEx again showed strong engagement. Binance and Coinbase retained high user counts but saw lower activity among existing accounts—suggesting new users may be depositing smaller amounts.
BTC reserve changes tell an even clearer story:
- OKEx and Huobi saw massive net inflows—adding 27,470 BTC and 22,842 BTC, respectively.
- Coinbase added less than 4,000 BTC.
- Most other exchanges experienced net outflows.
This points to a consolidation trend: capital is flowing into fewer, more trusted platforms—especially Huobi and OKEx. It also suggests higher average deposit sizes and stronger user loyalty on these platforms.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
With small whales accumulating and retail interest rising, the long-term outlook remains bullish. But short-term risks can’t be ignored.
Historically, spikes in large on-chain transfers signal strong network activity—and often precede price rallies (per Metcalfe’s Law: network value scales with the square of connected users). Yet recent data shows no surge in large transfers, suggesting current momentum lacks deep institutional or whale participation.
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This absence implies that the current price action may be driven more by sentiment than structural demand—leaving room for pullbacks.
That said, Kraken’s analysis suggests the ongoing accumulation phase won’t last forever. Once whales finish buying, reduced liquidity could trigger high volatility—and potentially explosive upside—as supply dries up and demand surges.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What defines a "whale" in Bitcoin?
A: While there's no strict definition, a Bitcoin whale typically refers to an individual or entity holding at least 100 BTC. Some classify holders above 1,000 BTC as "super whales."
Q: Can a single whale manipulate Bitcoin’s price?
A: While large players can influence short-term volatility (especially during low-liquidity periods), Bitcoin’s $1+ trillion market cap makes sustained manipulation extremely difficult. True price direction depends on broader market forces.
Q: What does "buy wall" or "sell wall" mean?
A: A buy wall is a large standing buy order at a specific price meant to prevent further declines. A sell wall aims to cap price increases. These can be genuine or spoofed to create false market signals.
Q: How does halving affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Halving reduces new BTC issuance by 50%, decreasing supply growth. Historically, this has led to bull markets months later as demand outpaces constrained supply—though timing varies.
Q: Are rising exchange deposits bullish or bearish?
A: It depends. Inflows can signal incoming sell pressure—but they can also reflect new users entering the market. Combined with low spending activity, inflows during accumulation phases are often neutral-to-bullish long-term.
Q: What’s the significance of small whales accumulating?
A: Small whales (10–100 BTC holders) often act as early indicators. Their sustained buying reflects growing confidence and can precede wider adoption by larger holders.
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