The Bitcoin landscape in 2025 is defined by a confluence of structural scarcity, robust network fundamentals, and growing institutional conviction. Following the April 2024 halving, which reduced daily issuance to approximately 900 BTC, the market has entered a phase of intensified supply constraints. With 74% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply considered illiquid—unchanged for two years or more—and nearly 75% dormant for over six months, the float available for trading has dramatically tightened. This scarcity, when paired with healthy transaction activity and strong holder behavior, sets the stage for a powerful bull cycle likely culminating in late 2025.
Core on-chain metrics such as Network Value to Transactions (NVT), Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), and Stock-to-Flow (S2F) models converge on a projected price range of $150,000 to $200,000. While macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties remain, the underlying data suggests that Bitcoin is not in a speculative bubble but rather in a fundamentally sound bull market driven by real demand and constrained supply.
Supply Scarcity and the Post-Halving Effect
The 2024 Bitcoin halving fundamentally altered the asset’s supply dynamics. By cutting block rewards in half, it reduced the rate of new coin creation, initiating a classic supply shock. Today, only 14.6 million of the nearly 19.8 million BTC in circulation have moved within the last two years—meaning over 74% is effectively locked up.
This unprecedented level of hoarding is further confirmed by HODL Waves, which show that approximately 25% of Bitcoin’s supply has remained untouched for 3–4 years. Such long-term retention signals deep market conviction and reduces the risk of sudden sell-offs.
👉 Discover how supply scarcity fuels long-term price momentum.
Implications of a Shrinking Float
With fewer coins available on the open market, even modest increases in demand—whether from spot purchases, ETF inflows, or derivatives activity—can trigger outsized price reactions. This dynamic amplifies volatility on the upside and underscores why many analysts view the current phase as a prelude to a major price breakout.
On-Chain Activity: Usage Over Speculation
Unlike previous bull runs fueled largely by retail speculation, 2025’s rally shows signs of sustainable on-chain usage.
- Daily active addresses average around 735,000, placing current activity near the historical 60th percentile.
- The network processes 390,000 to 400,000 transactions per day, moving roughly $45 billion in value across the blockchain.
- These figures reflect real economic activity rather than speculative mania.
Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio
The NVT ratio, often called the “P/E ratio of crypto,” currently sits at 1.51—a level associated with healthy valuations. For context:
- An NVT above 2.2 typically signals overvaluation or speculative froth.
- A reading below 1.5 suggests undervaluation or strong utility.
At 1.51, Bitcoin’s market cap appears well-supported by transaction volume, reinforcing its role as both a store of value and a functional settlement layer.
Holder Behavior: Confidence and Controlled Profit-Taking
Investor sentiment is best gauged through on-chain holder metrics.
Realized Cap and SOPR
- Realized capitalization has surpassed $900 billion, representing the aggregate cost basis of all current holders.
- The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) hovers near 1.03, indicating that when coins do move, they are sold just above break-even—suggesting minimal panic selling and disciplined profit-taking.
MVRV and Sell-Side Risk
- The MVRV ratio stands at ~2.3×, meaning the market value is 2.3 times the realized value. This implies long-term holders are sitting on substantial unrealized gains (+230%), while short-term holders remain cautiously positive (+13%).
- The Sell-Side Risk ratio is elevated but remains well below peaks seen in 2017 and 2021, indicating no widespread capitulation.
These metrics collectively reveal a mature market: investors are locking in profits selectively without abandoning their core holdings.
Miner Economics: Pressure and Consolidation
Miners play a critical role in Bitcoin’s price dynamics, especially post-halving.
- The global hashrate has exceeded 1 zettahash per second, reflecting strong network security despite shrinking margins.
- Daily miner revenue has declined by about 30% since 2024 due to lower block rewards and rising difficulty.
- On April 7, 2025, miners collectively sold 15,000 BTC (~$1.1 billion) during a price dip—likely to cover operational costs.
While this created short-term selling pressure, such events often lead to market cleansing. Weaker mining operations exit, leaving behind a more efficient and resilient network better aligned with long-term price support.
Exchange Flows: Declining Liquidity, Rising Scarcity
Exchange balances offer a real-time window into supply availability.
- Over April–May 2025, Binance’s reserves dropped from ~595,000 BTC to 544,500 BTC, signaling significant withdrawals.
- The 7-day moving average of net flows remains deeply negative—the strongest outflow trend since early 2023.
These withdrawals suggest that large holders (whales and institutions) are moving BTC to cold storage, reducing spot market liquidity. As a result, any new buying pressure can more easily push prices upward.
👉 See how reduced exchange supply impacts price volatility.
Valuation Models: Projecting the 2025 Peak
Quantitative models help contextualize Bitcoin’s potential price trajectory.
Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
- The S2F model projects a fair value between $248,000 (based on 463-day average)** and **$369,000 (10-day average).
- While criticized for oversimplification post-2021, it remains a useful benchmark for scarcity-driven valuation.
Supporting Indicators
- Mayer Multiple: Currently between 1.1–1.2, indicating mild overvaluation but not bubble territory.
- Pi Cycle Top Model: Suggests a peak in late 2025.
- MVRV Z-Score: Rebounding from lows, signaling accumulation by long-term investors.
- Value Days Destroyed (VDD): In the “green zone,” confirming healthy holder behavior.
Together, these models reinforce the narrative of a mid-cycle correction followed by a final surge toward new all-time highs.
Historical Cycles and Timing the Peak
Bitcoin’s ~4-year cycle has historically peaked 12–18 months after each halving:
- 2013 peak: ~1 year post-halving
- 2017 peak: ~1.3 years
- 2021 peak: ~1.5 years
If this pattern holds, Q3 or Q4 2025 is the most probable window for the next bull market top. The dip from $100K to $75K in early 2025 fits the profile of a healthy mid-cycle correction rather than a bearish reversal.
Institutional Forecasts and Market Consensus
Major financial institutions and on-chain analysts largely align on a $150K–$200K price target for Bitcoin by end-of-year 2025.
- Standard Chartered forecasts $200K, citing spot ETF inflows and digital gold adoption.
- Bernstein (Goldman Sachs) also projects ~$200K, emphasizing institutional momentum.
- VanEck’s Michael Sigel estimates $180K, using an on-chain dual-peak model.
- PlanB’s S2F model points to $160K, rooted in halving-driven scarcity.
- Prediction markets like Kalshi assign a 43% probability to Bitcoin exceeding $150K.
This convergence across methodologies underscores growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Competitive Positioning: Bitcoin vs. Alternatives
As Bitcoin advances, it continues to outperform other asset classes:
- vs. Altcoins: Ethereum and Solana offer utility but carry higher protocol risk. Bitcoin remains the dominant store of value.
- vs. Gold: Bitcoin’s digital scarcity, portability, and divisibility give it an edge over physical precious metals.
- vs. Equities & Bonds: With low correlation to traditional markets, Bitcoin serves as an effective portfolio diversifier.
- vs. Yield Products: While staking offers returns, it introduces smart-contract risks. Bitcoin’s security model remains unmatched.
👉 Compare Bitcoin’s fundamentals against other digital assets.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What drives Bitcoin price after the halving?
The halving reduces new supply, increasing scarcity. When combined with steady or rising demand—tracked via on-chain metrics like illiquid supply and transaction volume—it creates upward price pressure.
How reliable are on-chain models like Stock-to-Flow?
S2F is a useful framework that links scarcity to value. While it has underperformed since 2021 due to macro influences, it still provides a strong baseline for long-term valuation expectations.
What does the NVT ratio tell us about market health?
The NVT ratio compares market cap to transaction volume. A low NVT (~1.51) indicates that Bitcoin’s valuation is supported by real economic activity rather than speculation—signaling a healthy market.
Can Bitcoin really reach $200K by 2025?
Multiple models and institutions project this range. Historical cycles, ETF inflows, supply constraints, and holder behavior all support this outcome—though macro risks could delay or accelerate the timeline.
Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
From an on-chain perspective, indicators like exchange outflows, low sell-side stress, and strong holder conviction suggest accumulation remains favorable ahead of a potential late-2025 rally.
How can investors participate in Bitcoin’s growth?
Options include spot purchases (direct ownership), futures (for leverage or hedging), or yield-generating products like staking—though each carries different risk profiles.
Final Outlook
Bitcoin in 2025 stands at the intersection of structural scarcity and growing institutional adoption. With supply tightening, demand rising through ETFs and global adoption, and holder behavior reflecting strong conviction, the foundation for a new all-time high is firmly in place. While volatility will persist, the on-chain evidence suggests that a move into the $150K–$200K range by year-end is not just possible—it’s increasingly probable.
Whether you're accumulating for the long term or positioning tactically, understanding these metrics empowers smarter decisions in one of the most dynamic markets of the decade.