Despite a minor dip of just 0.46% last week, ONDO has rebounded strongly with a 3.64% gain in the past 24 hours. This upward movement has contributed to a remarkable 49.42% monthly increase, signaling robust bullish momentum in the market. Behind this rally lies a growing wave of institutional and whale accumulation, tightening supply on exchanges, and shifting sentiment in the derivatives market—all pointing toward potential price expansion in the near term.
With major platforms like Binance, Upbit, and market maker Wintermute actively increasing their ONDO holdings, investor confidence is rising. At the same time, decreasing availability of ONDO on exchanges suggests a looming supply squeeze—a classic precursor to significant price surges in crypto markets.
Whale Accumulation Signals Strong Confidence
Large-scale investors, often referred to as “whales,” are increasingly positioning themselves for what could be a major move in ONDO’s value. According to on-chain analyst Jacky, several leading crypto platforms have been quietly amassing substantial amounts of the token over recent months.
One of the most notable accumulators is Upbit, South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Over the past five months, Upbit has grown its ONDO holdings from 50 million to 185 million tokens, now representing 1.86% of the total supply.
“Upbit has gone from 50 million $ONDO to 185 million ONDO, accounting for 1.86% of the total supply.”
— Jacky, On-Chain Analyst
This level of accumulation by a top-tier exchange indicates strong institutional interest and long-term confidence in ONDO’s fundamentals.
Similarly, Binance, one of the world’s most influential exchanges, has also increased its ONDO balance—from approximately 594,000 to 631,000 tokens in just a few days. While this may seem modest compared to Upbit’s holdings, Binance’s rapid增持 (increase in holdings) often serves as an early indicator of market shifts.
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Even Wintermute, a leading algorithmic market maker known for strategic positioning ahead of volatility, has joined the accumulation trend. These coordinated moves by major players suggest that ONDO is increasingly being viewed not just as a speculative asset, but as a core holding with growing utility and adoption.
Whale accumulation typically precedes price rallies because large buyers absorb available supply, reducing market liquidity and forcing prices higher when demand increases. With such influential entities building positions, retail investors are taking notice.
A Looming Supply Squeeze Could Accelerate Gains
Another critical factor supporting ONDO’s bullish outlook is the shrinking supply available on centralized exchanges. Data from Coinglass shows that ONDO’s Exchange Netflow has turned negative, meaning more tokens are being withdrawn than deposited.
This outflow—amounting to roughly $4.10 million worth of ONDO over the past week—indicates that spot traders are moving their holdings into private wallets, likely for long-term storage. When fewer tokens are available for trading on exchanges, it creates tighter market conditions.
A constrained supply combined with rising demand can trigger sharp price increases—a phenomenon commonly referred to as a supply squeeze. Historically, such dynamics have preceded explosive rallies in assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum during bull cycles.
With whales accumulating and retail holders opting to self-custody, the amount of ONDO readily available for sale continues to dwindle. This structural shift reduces selling pressure and increases upward price elasticity, making it easier for even moderate buying interest to push prices significantly higher.
👉 Learn how exchange outflows signal upcoming price movements before they happen.
Derivatives Market Shift Hints at Short-Seller Pain
While spot market dynamics paint a bullish picture, the derivatives landscape reveals another layer: growing vulnerability among short sellers.
In the last 24 hours alone, about $297,180 worth of long positions were liquidated as prices briefly dipped. However, this short-term bearish correction appears increasingly fragile given broader market trends.
More telling is the shift in Open Interest (OI)—a key metric reflecting the total number of open derivative contracts. OI has declined recently, yet there’s been a noticeable rise in unsettled short contracts. This means more traders are betting on further price declines.
But here’s the risk: if ONDO continues its upward trajectory—fueled by whale demand and reduced exchange supply—these short positions could face mass liquidations. In crypto markets, cascading short squeezes often amplify rallies, leading to rapid and dramatic price spikes.
Given that ONDO is already up 3.64% daily and showing strong momentum across multiple indicators, derivative traders betting against the asset may soon find themselves on the wrong side of the trade.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is driving ONDO’s recent price increase?
The current rally is primarily driven by whale accumulation, exchange outflows, and growing institutional interest. Major platforms like Binance and Upbit are increasing their ONDO holdings, while fewer tokens are available on exchanges—creating ideal conditions for price appreciation.
Are we seeing a supply squeeze in ONDO?
Yes. With negative exchange netflow and over $4 million in ONDO moved to private wallets in one week, supply is tightening. A shrinking circulating supply on exchanges increases scarcity and sets the stage for potential price surges if demand remains steady or grows.
Could short sellers face losses in ONDO?
Absolutely. There has been an increase in open short positions despite strong bullish fundamentals. If ONDO sustains its upward momentum, these leveraged bets could be liquidated quickly, potentially triggering a short squeeze that accelerates gains.
Why are exchanges like Binance and Upbit buying ONDO?
Exchanges don’t buy tokens for speculation in the traditional sense—but changes in their balances often reflect custodial activity, institutional inflows, or preparations for new product listings (e.g., staking, futures). Their accumulation may signal underlying demand from large clients or anticipation of increased trading activity.
Is ONDO a good long-term investment?
ONDO’s foundation in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization gives it strong fundamental value. As more institutions explore blockchain-based finance, projects enabling fractional ownership of assets like bonds and treasuries—exactly what Ondo Finance offers—stand to gain significant traction.
How can I track whale activity for ONDO?
You can monitor large transactions and exchange flows using tools like Coinglass, Nansen, or Glassnode. Watching wallet movements from known entities like Wintermute or major exchanges provides early insight into potential market shifts.
Final Outlook: Momentum Building for a Breakout
ONDO is exhibiting all the hallmarks of an asset poised for a significant move: strategic accumulation by whales, declining exchange supply, and increasing risk for bearish derivative traders. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the structural trends favor sustained upward pressure.
As real-world asset tokenization gains momentum across global financial markets, ONDO’s role as a pioneer in this space positions it well for continued growth beyond 2025.
Investors watching this space should pay close attention—not just to price action, but to on-chain behavior and institutional positioning. The current accumulation phase may very well be setting the foundation for the next major leg up.
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