Bitcoin (BTC) is once again approaching its all-time high, and behind the price movement, a more profound shift is unfolding on-chain. The Realized Dominance Indicator—a key metric that tracks the distribution of Bitcoin’s market capitalization between short-term and long-term holders—is signaling a major transformation in market sentiment and ownership structure.
This structural evolution reflects a maturing market cycle, where speculative pressure fades and confidence among long-term investors grows. As new buying activity slows and older coins accumulate in resilient hands, the foundation for sustainable price appreciation begins to form.
Short-Term Holders Retreat, Long-Term Confidence Rises
Recent on-chain analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk reveals a notable trend: the market share of short-term holders (STH)—those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days—has declined to approximately 45%. This contraction suggests reduced participation from new entrants and speculative traders.
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When STH market capitalization falls, it often means one of two things: either recent buyers are selling at a loss due to volatility, or they’re choosing not to sell at all, effectively transitioning into long-term holders. In the current environment, evidence points strongly toward the latter.
Concurrently, the proportion of long-term holders (LTH)—investors holding BTC for more than 155 days—is increasing. This shift typically emerges during the late stages of a bull market, indicating that early investors are either holding firm or strategically rebalancing profits while maintaining core positions.
“This highlights a critical supply transfer dynamic: as new entrants struggle to profit from gradual price increases, seasoned participants consolidate control over a growing share of network value.”
Such a transition reflects what analysts call position maturation—a process where short-term supply is absorbed into long-term wallets, reducing circulating sell pressure and reinforcing market resilience.
A Structural Bullish Signal Amid Consolidation
The divergence between declining STH value and rising LTH dominance is more than just a data point—it’s a structural signal with strong bullish implications.
Historically, such patterns precede major price breakouts. When short-term speculation cools and long-term conviction strengthens, the market enters a consolidation phase characterized by lower volatility and reduced selling pressure. This environment allows stronger hands to absorb weak supply—often from leveraged or emotionally driven traders exiting during pullbacks.
Crazzyblockk notes that Bitcoin’s current phase resembles classic accumulation behavior, where “weaker hands” exit amid uncertainty, while “stronger holders” increase their foothold. This process builds a more robust support base, setting the stage for a potential surge toward a new all-time high (ATH).
But consolidation doesn’t mean stagnation. It’s a necessary phase in every mature market cycle—a period of digestion before the next leg up.
Short-Term Risks: Cooling Demand and Negative Indicators
Despite the optimistic structural outlook, short-term risks remain. On-chain metrics tracking real-time demand show warning signs that could lead to temporary downside pressure.
One such indicator is Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand, which measures whether incoming buying volume can offset selling pressure from miners and long-term holders. Recently, this metric plunged to -37,000 BTC, signaling that current buyer interest is insufficient to absorb available sell-side supply.
This negative reading suggests:
- Reduced urgency among new investors to enter the market
- Possible profit-taking by large holders
- Miner outflows or exchange deposits adding downward pressure
Such conditions increase the risk of a short-term correction—potentially similar in magnitude to the pullback observed in April 2025, when prices briefly dipped near $75,000. While not indicative of a full bull market reversal, this type of correction serves as a natural reset, shaking out weak positions before momentum resumes.
Key Support Level Nears $100K – A Psychological Milestone
Amid these dynamics, a powerful positive signal is emerging: the Short-Term Holder Floor Price (STH Floor Price) has been rising steadily over recent months and is now approaching $100,000.
The STH Floor Price represents the lowest price at which short-term holders originally acquired their Bitcoin. As this floor climbs, it establishes a critical psychological and technical support level. Once it crosses $100K, it could act as a formidable anchor during future volatility—making it increasingly difficult for price to fall below that threshold without triggering strong buying interest.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $109,421.70, reflecting a 1.62% gain over the past 24 hours. With the STH floor closing in on six figures, the market may be building an impenetrable support wall—one that reinforces confidence across both retail and institutional investors.
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What This Means for the Future of Bitcoin
The confluence of rising LTH dominance, falling STH participation, and an advancing STH floor price paints a picture of a maturing bull run. These are not isolated signals—they form a coherent narrative of market strengthening from within.
Core keywords naturally integrated throughout this analysis include:
Bitcoin, Realized Dominance, Short-Term Holders (STH), Long-Term Holders (LTH), on-chain data, market consolidation, bullish signal, and price support.
Each plays a vital role in understanding how investor behavior shapes price trends—not just in the short term, but across full market cycles.
As speculative noise fades and stronger hands accumulate, Bitcoin moves closer to institutional-grade stability. This doesn’t eliminate volatility entirely, but it does suggest that future price movements will be grounded in deeper conviction rather than fleeting sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is Realized Dominance in Bitcoin?
A: Realized Dominance measures the percentage of Bitcoin’s total market cap held by long-term versus short-term holders. A rising LTH share often signals growing confidence and reduced sell pressure.
Q: Why is the STH Floor Price important?
A: The STH Floor Price indicates the lowest cost basis for recently acquired Bitcoin. As it rises, it creates a strong support zone that can prevent sharp price drops.
Q: Does declining short-term holder activity mean a bear market is coming?
A: Not necessarily. A drop in STH market cap often occurs during healthy consolidations in bull markets, especially when supply is being transferred to long-term wallets.
Q: How reliable are on-chain indicators like Apparent Demand?
A: On-chain metrics provide valuable insights into supply-demand dynamics. While not perfect, they offer transparency unmatched by traditional financial data.
Q: Can Bitcoin reach $100K based on current trends?
A: With the STH Floor nearing $100K and long-term confidence growing, many analysts believe this level is not only possible but likely within the current cycle.
Q: What typically happens after long-term holders regain dominance?
A: Historically, increased LTH control precedes major price rallies. With fewer coins available for sale, even moderate demand can drive significant upward momentum.
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