The cryptocurrency market has recently sparked renewed excitement among investors as Bitcoin surged past $70,000. This rally has triggered a broad upward movement across other major digital assets, leading many to wonder: Is the bull market already here? While there’s no definitive date stamped on the arrival of a new bull cycle, growing evidence suggests we may already be in the early stages of one. Based on historical patterns, macroeconomic conditions, and key on-chain events like the Bitcoin halving, experts project that the next major bull run could unfold through late 2024 and into 2025.
But before diving into predictions, it's essential to understand what defines a bull or bear market in crypto—and how to distinguish between temporary price spikes and sustainable trends.
What Defines a Bull Market in Cryptocurrency?
A bull market refers to a prolonged period during which cryptocurrency prices rise consistently, investor sentiment turns optimistic, and trading volume increases significantly. During such phases, confidence in the market grows, new participants enter, and media attention intensifies. In contrast, a bear market is marked by sustained price declines, widespread pessimism, reduced liquidity, and lower trading activity.
These cycles are not unique to crypto—they originate from traditional financial markets—but they tend to be more volatile and compressed in the digital asset space. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a roughly four-year cycle driven largely by its halving events, where block rewards for miners are cut in half, reducing new supply entering the market.
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Historical Patterns: The Four-Year Crypto Cycle
One of the most reliable indicators for predicting bull markets in crypto is the Bitcoin halving. Since its inception, Bitcoin has undergone three halvings—in 2012, 2016, and 2020—with each preceding a significant bull run:
- After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose from around $12 to over $1,000 by the end of 2013—a gain of more than 8,000%.
- Following the 2016 halving, Bitcoin climbed from approximately $650 to nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
- After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin started at about $9,000 and peaked at over $68,000 in November 2021.
This consistent pattern suggests that reduced supply pressure post-halving, combined with growing demand, fuels upward price momentum—typically peaking 12 to 18 months after the event.
With the next Bitcoin halving occurring in April 2024, many analysts believe the subsequent bull phase will gain momentum in mid-to-late 2024, potentially extending into 2025. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has publicly suggested that history may repeat itself, pointing to technical patterns indicating a potential "mania phase" could begin around mid-2024.
His analysis emphasizes that past bull markets didn’t start immediately after halvings but rather gained steam months later—once institutional interest picked up and retail adoption accelerated.
Is the Crypto Market Currently in a Bull or Bear Phase?
As of early 2025, mounting evidence indicates that the crypto market has transitioned from a bear phase into the early to mid-stage of a bull market.
Here’s why:
- Bitcoin surpassed $70,000, signaling strong demand and renewed institutional confidence.
- Ethereum and altcoins have shown significant recovery, with double-digit gains across sectors like DeFi, AI-integrated tokens, and Layer 1 platforms.
- On-chain data reveals increasing wallet activity, exchange outflows (suggesting long-term holding), and rising stablecoin supplies—key indicators of accumulating investor confidence.
- Regulatory clarity in major markets (e.g., U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024) has removed uncertainty and attracted traditional finance (TradFi) capital.
While macroeconomic headwinds such as high interest rates and inflation once weighed heavily on risk assets like crypto, recent signals suggest central banks may begin easing monetary policy in 2025. Lower interest rates typically boost investor appetite for higher-risk, high-reward assets—including cryptocurrencies.
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Key Signs That a Bull Market Is Underway
To determine whether we're truly in a bull market, watch for these signals:
- Sustained price increases across top cryptocurrencies over several months.
- Growing public interest reflected in search volume (e.g., Google Trends) and social media engagement.
- Increased venture capital funding in Web3 startups and infrastructure projects.
- Expansion of real-world blockchain use cases—such as tokenized assets, decentralized identity, and cross-border payments.
- Positive regulatory developments that enhance legitimacy and accessibility.
When multiple indicators align like this, it strengthens the case that we’re not just seeing a short-term rally but the beginning of a broader bull cycle.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: What triggers a crypto bull market?
A: Several factors can trigger a bull market, including Bitcoin halvings (which reduce supply), increased institutional adoption, favorable regulations (like approved ETFs), macroeconomic easing (lower interest rates), and growing utility of blockchain technology.
Q: How long do crypto bull markets usually last?
A: On average, crypto bull markets last between 18 to 24 months, with the most intense price surges occurring in the final 6–9 months. The 2017 cycle lasted about 18 months; the 2021 run lasted roughly two years from start to peak.
Q: Can a bull market happen without a Bitcoin halving?
A: Yes. While halvings are strong catalysts due to supply constraints, external forces like global economic shifts, technological breakthroughs (e.g., Ethereum upgrades), or mass adoption events (e.g., country-wide crypto usage) can also drive bull runs independently.
Q: Are all cryptocurrencies profitable during a bull market?
A: Not necessarily. While Bitcoin and major altcoins like Ethereum typically rise during bull phases, lower-quality or poorly managed projects may fail to gain traction—or even collapse under scrutiny amid rising competition.
Q: How can I prepare for the current bull market?
A: Focus on education, portfolio diversification, dollar-cost averaging (DCA), and using secure exchanges. Avoid emotional trading and always conduct thorough research before investing. Consider allocating a portion of your portfolio to both blue-chip assets (BTC, ETH) and promising innovation-driven projects.
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Final Thoughts: Positioning Yourself for Growth
Whether you view the current surge as the beginning of a full-blown bull market or a powerful rebound within a transitional phase, one thing is clear: momentum is shifting in favor of digital assets. With the 2024 Bitcoin halving behind us and macro conditions gradually improving, the foundation for sustained growth appears solid.
For investors, this means staying informed, managing risk wisely, and being ready to act when opportunities arise. Rather than trying to time the exact peak or bottom, focus on long-term value creation through strategic entry points and disciplined investing.
The crypto market remains dynamic and unpredictable—but those who understand its rhythms stand the best chance of thriving through its cycles.