The world of digital assets continues to evolve at a rapid pace, drawing insights from both seasoned technologists and financial veterans. Among the most compelling voices is Hong Shuning, a former long-time official at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Nanjing Branch, who has emerged as a prominent Bitcoin advocate. With deep roots in central banking and early exposure to cryptocurrency, Hong offers a bold vision: Bitcoin will reach $100,000—and potentially far beyond—while Ethereum (and its native token ETH) will eventually fall to zero. At the heart of his prediction lies a rising innovation: the RGB protocol, which he believes will spark a technological explosion within the Bitcoin ecosystem in the next one to two years.
Early Encounters with Bitcoin and a Vision for Monetary Sovereignty
Hong’s journey with Bitcoin began in 2011 during his tenure at the PBOC. At the time, China was actively discussing the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) as a strategic move against U.S. dollar dominance. Amid this backdrop, Hong stumbled upon technical blogs detailing a new digital currency called Bitcoin. Intrigued, he read the original Bitcoin whitepaper and dove into its source code.
“After reading it, I realized this was a new form of money capable of challenging dollar hegemony,” Hong recalls. “I studied the code and found it fully aligned with the whitepaper’s principles—a truly functional and decentralized currency.”
Despite his enthusiasm, his attempts to share Bitcoin with colleagues met with indifference. Undeterred, he authored a research paper proposing three strategic actions for China’s central bank:
- Participate in Bitcoin mining to gain technical and economic influence.
- Establish Bitcoin banks to facilitate public adoption.
- Use Bitcoin as a reserve asset to back RMB issuance, reducing reliance on the dollar.
While the paper sparked discussion in niche crypto circles, it did not gain institutional traction at the time.
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Bitcoin’s Inevitable Rise: From $100K to Global Reserve Currency
Hong remains unwavering in his belief that Bitcoin’s long-term price appreciation is inevitable. In 2017, after leaving the PBOC, he made a public forecast: Bitcoin would reach $100,000. This wasn’t speculation—it was grounded in comparative asset valuation.
“If Bitcoin were to fully replace gold as a reserve asset, its market cap would justify a price near $400,000 per coin,” he explains. “So $100,000 is actually a conservative target.”
He argues that Bitcoin is still vastly undervalued, not due to technical flaws, but because public understanding lags behind its true potential. With advancements like the Lightning Network and second-layer scaling solutions, Bitcoin is evolving from “digital gold” into a viable global transactional currency.
“Bitcoin can surpass gold and even challenge the U.S. dollar as the foundation of the global economy,” Hong asserts. “When that happens, its value could climb into the hundreds of thousands—or even millions—per coin.”
Why Ethereum Will Fail: A Redundant Innovation?
One of Hong’s most controversial stances is his outright rejection of Ethereum and its native token ETH.
“I had the chance to participate in Ethereum’s ICO but chose not to,” he admits. “Even today, I don’t believe in its long-term necessity.”
His critique centers on Ethereum’s core innovation: Turing-complete smart contracts. While Ethereum was designed to overcome Bitcoin’s limited scripting capabilities, Hong argues that Bitcoin could have achieved similar functionality by restoring deprecated opcodes and leveraging creative workarounds.
“The early Bitcoin community was full of innovation,” he says. “We had multiple paths to expand functionality without reinventing the wheel. But after the 2017 hard fork and the conservative faction’s victory, Bitcoin abandoned script expansion—missing a critical opportunity.”
This vacuum allowed Ethereum to flourish, attracting developers and fueling the rise of DeFi, NFTs, and dApps. Yet Hong believes this success is temporary.
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RGB Protocol: The Future of Bitcoin-Based Smart Contracts
Hong sees the resurgence of Bitcoin’s programmability through new protocols—especially RGB.
Unlike Ethereum, which executes smart contracts on-chain, RGB operates off-chain, using Bitcoin’s blockchain only to record cryptographic proofs. This “off-chain execution, on-chain verification” model solves Bitcoin’s scalability issues while preserving security and decentralization.
Key Advantages of RGB:
- Near-infinite scalability: Transactions occur peer-to-peer without burdening the main chain.
- Turing-complete functionality: Enables complex logic for DeFi, GameFi, NFTs, and more.
- Low fees and high speed: Ideal for microtransactions and mass adoption.
- Enhanced miner revenue: Increased transaction volume generates more fees, securing the network post-halving.
“This is how Bitcoin can support massive financial applications without compromising its core principles,” Hong emphasizes.
He believes RGB will catalyze a wave of innovation comparable to Ethereum’s rise—but faster and more secure.
“Within one to two years of RGB’s official launch, we’ll see an explosion of applications that mirror everything Ethereum has built—DeFi protocols, tokenized assets, decentralized identity systems, and more.”
Addressing Bitcoin’s Greatest Threat: Post-Halving Security
One often-overlooked risk Hong highlights is Bitcoin’s long-term security model.
As block rewards halve every four years, miners will eventually rely almost entirely on transaction fees for income. If transaction volume doesn’t grow sufficiently, mining becomes economically unviable—raising the risk of 51% attacks and network instability.
The solution? Massive adoption of on-chain financial activity.
“Bitcoin needs high transaction throughput to sustain miner incentives,” Hong states. “That means replicating Ethereum’s DeFi success—but on Bitcoin.”
RGB is central to this vision. By enabling scalable smart contracts and dApps, it can generate the transaction volume needed to keep miners profitable and the network secure indefinitely.
Building the Infrastructure for Mass Adoption
While RGB shows promise, its current development is still in progress. To accelerate real-world use, Hong and others are building supporting tools:
- Simplified node management
- User-friendly smart contract interfaces
- Decentralized data storage solutions
- Wallet integrations for seamless dApp access
These tools aim to lower the technical barrier, making RGB accessible to non-developers and mainstream users alike.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why does Hong believe Bitcoin will reach $100K?
A: His prediction is based on Bitcoin’s potential to replace gold as a reserve asset. Even at $100K, Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold’s market cap.
Q: Can Bitcoin really support smart contracts like Ethereum?
A: Yes—through off-chain protocols like RGB. These enable complex logic without overloading Bitcoin’s main chain.
Q: Is Ethereum really going to zero?
A: Hong believes so, arguing that Ethereum becomes obsolete once Bitcoin achieves full programmability via solutions like RGB.
Q: What is the RGB protocol?
A: RGB is a layer-two protocol that enables smart contracts and digital assets on Bitcoin by processing transactions off-chain and anchoring proofs on-chain.
Q: How does RGB improve Bitcoin’s scalability?
A: By moving computation off-chain, RGB avoids congestion and achieves near-unlimited throughput while maintaining Bitcoin’s security.
Q: When will RGB be ready for mainstream use?
A: The protocol is nearing final release. Experts predict widespread adoption within one to two years post-launch.
Final Thoughts: A New Era for Bitcoin
Hong Shuning’s journey—from central banker to Bitcoin visionary—reflects a growing shift in how financial leaders view digital assets. His forecast isn’t just about price targets; it’s about technological inevitability.
Bitcoin may have started as digital gold, but with innovations like RGB, it’s poised to become the backbone of a decentralized global economy. Meanwhile, platforms like Ethereum, once seen as pioneers, may find themselves outpaced by a more secure, scalable, and sustainable model built on Bitcoin’s foundation.
The next 24 months could redefine the blockchain landscape—and RGB might be at the center of it all.