The crypto market’s bull runs don’t just create wealth—they also generate widespread illusions of endless gains. In the heat of market euphoria, few investors manage to exit gracefully at the top. Knowing when to step back from explosive rallies and avoid deep corrections requires a strategic, data-driven approach. By analyzing multiple on-chain and market sentiment indicators, we can better assess whether we're approaching a market peak.
Biteye analyzed 15 widely used “top-picking” indicators and found that nearly 20% have already entered sell zones in 2024. These include the Bitcoin Rhodl Ratio, USDT活期理财 (USDT Yield Index), and the Altcoin Season Index. This raises a critical question: What should investors do next?
Let’s break down each key metric to understand the current market landscape and how to respond.
Understanding the Top-Picking Indicators
To navigate volatile crypto cycles, investors rely on a mix of on-chain analytics, market sentiment, and macro valuation models. Below is a detailed review of 15 essential indicators, their signals, and current statuses.
1. AHR999 HODLer Indicator
The AHR999 indicator evaluates the profitability of long-term Bitcoin holders while measuring price deviation from fair value. It’s particularly useful for identifying ideal buy zones during bear markets and caution zones during rallies.
Signal Levels:
- >4: Strong sell signal—market likely overheated
- 1.2–4: Caution zone—remain vigilant
- 0.45–1.2: Ideal accumulation range
- <0.45: Extreme undervaluation (rare)
Current Status: 1.21 — still in the caution zone, not yet signaling a top.
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2. AHR999 Top-Exit Indicator
This variant of AHR999 focuses specifically on identifying overextended price action above long-term trends. It successfully flagged peaks in both 2017 and 2021, making it a trusted tool to avoid FOMO-driven entries.
Signal Threshold:
- Values significantly above 1 indicate overvaluation.
Current Status: No clear top signal yet — price remains elevated but not extreme.
3. Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple compares daily Bitcoin mining revenue to its 365-day moving average. It reflects miner behavior and potential supply pressure.
Signal Levels:
- >4: Miners are earning abnormally high revenues — often precedes sell pressure
- <0.5: Undervalued, potential accumulation phase
Current Status: Around 2.8 — elevated but not at historical peak levels.
4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
A long-standing visual model that uses logarithmic regression to estimate Bitcoin’s fair value over time.
Signal Behavior:
When price enters the upper red bands, it historically signals overbought conditions.
Current Status: Price is in the upper yellow/orange zone — approaching overheated territory but not yet in the red “sell” band.
5. Bitcoin Terminal Price Indicator
This model calculates Bitcoin’s intrinsic value by adjusting for coin age and velocity. It filters out speculative noise and reflects network fundamentals.
Signal Behavior:
As market price nears the red terminal price line, risk of correction increases.
Current Status: Still below the red line — no immediate top signal.
6. Bitcoin Market Dominance (BTC.D)
BTC.D measures Bitcoin’s market cap as a percentage of total crypto market cap. Shifts in dominance reveal capital flows between Bitcoin and altcoins.
Signal Levels:
- >65%: Bitcoin strength — early bull phase
- 40–65%: Balanced market
- <40%: Altcoin season — often near cycle peak
Current Status: Around 52% — neutral zone, suggesting no strong rotation into altcoins yet.
7. Bitcoin CBBI Index
The Combined Bitcoin Binary Index (CBBI) aggregates multiple technical and on-chain signals into one easy-to-read gauge. It’s designed to detect cycle turning points with high accuracy.
Signal Threshold:
- >90: Market at or near top
Current Status: 79 — elevated but not extreme. Suggests bullish momentum without full euphoria.
8. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-Score compares market cap to realized cap, adjusted for volatility. High values indicate overvaluation.
Signal Threshold:
- >5: Strong sell signal
Current Status: 2.5 — elevated but far from historic peaks (~7 in previous tops).
9. Bitcoin Rhodl Ratio
The Rhodl Ratio combines realized price with price movement to detect when short-term holders are realizing large profits—often a sign of top formation.
Signal Threshold:
- ≥10,000: Market near peak
- Approaching red zone = profit-taking surge
Current Status: Entered red/sell zone briefly in November 2024, signaling early top behavior. This confirms that one of the key indicators has already flashed a warning.
10. Mayer Multiple
This simple yet powerful metric divides Bitcoin’s current price by its 200-day moving average (200DMA).
Signal Levels:
- >2.4: Historically overbought — high correction risk
- <0.8: Deeply undervalued — potential buy zone
Current Status: 1.26 — above 200DMA, indicating bullish trend, but not extreme.
11. ETF Net Outflow Streak Days
A newer metric tracking consecutive days of net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Prolonged outflows may reflect institutional profit-taking.
Signal Levels:
- >10 days: Strong bearish signal
- 5–10 days: Warning sign
- <5 days: Normal volatility
Current Status: No sustained outflow streak reported — investor demand remains stable.
12. USDT Yield Rate (活期理财)
High short-term yields on USDT in lending platforms can indicate reduced risk appetite or capital rotation out of speculative assets.
Signal Behavior:
Spikes in yield often precede market tops as traders lock in stable returns.
Current Status: Yield surged into top-quartile range in 2024 — one of the three indicators that have already entered sell territory.
13. Altcoin Season Index
This index tracks whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day window.
Signal Threshold:
- >75: Altcoin season in full swing — often late-cycle behavior
Current Status: Briefly exceeded 75 in late 2024 — another confirmation that speculative energy spiked, aligning with top formation patterns.
14. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
NUPL measures overall market sentiment by comparing unrealized gains across all Bitcoin holders.
Signal Levels:
- >0.75: Euphoria zone
- <0: Fear/despair
Current Status: ~0.65 — greed phase, not full euphoria.
15. Exchange Netflow
Large inflows to exchanges suggest investors preparing to sell; outflows suggest accumulation.
Signal Behavior:
Sustained net inflows often precede price drops.
Current Status: Neutral to slightly positive outflows — no major red flag.
FAQ: Your Top Questions Answered
Q: What does it mean if 20% of indicators are flashing sell signals?
A: It suggests early signs of market topping. While not an immediate crash signal, it means speculative excess is building in certain areas—especially in altcoins and short-term yield behavior.
Q: Should I sell all my crypto now?
A: Not necessarily. Only three indicators have triggered so far. Most remain in bullish or neutral zones. A prudent strategy is to take partial profits and rebalance into stable assets or cash.
Q: Which indicator is most reliable for timing the top?
A: The MVRV Z-Score and CBBI Index have strong historical accuracy. Combining them with on-chain data like exchange flows improves timing precision.
Q: Can the market keep rising even after some indicators peak?
A: Yes. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Indicators provide probabilities, not certainties. Use them as risk gauges, not timing triggers.
Q: What should I watch next?
A: Monitor MVRV Z-Score >5, CBBI >90, and sustained ETF outflows. Also track if BTC dominance drops below 45%—a classic late-cycle sign.
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Final Thoughts: Stay Alert, Not Alarmed
While three key indicators—Rhodl Ratio, USDT Yield, and Altcoin Season Index—have entered sell zones in 2024, the broader picture remains mixed. Most metrics suggest continued bullish momentum without full-blown euphoria.
This is not a “get out now” moment—but it is a “tighten your seatbelt” phase.
Investors should:
- Take partial profits in overperforming altcoins
- Monitor on-chain flows and ETF data closely
- Avoid leveraged positions
- Prepare rebalancing plans for when more indicators align
The goal isn’t to predict the exact top but to preserve capital when warning lights begin flashing.
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